March Madness Sweet 16 Against the Spread Bets, Odds: Iowa State vs. Miami

Against the spread bets for Friday’s Sweet 16 matchup between No. 10 Miami and No. 11 Iowa State in the Midwest Region.

SI Editorial | Mar 24, 2022

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It’s the battle of inclement weather in the Midwest region's late game—Cyclones versus Hurricanes.

Two double-digit seeds, No. 11 Iowa State and No. 10 Miami, are in the Sweet 16 after surprise upsets of the No. 2 and 3 seeds in their region. The Cyclones like to slow things down and can win games where they barely surpass 50 points, while the Canes like to get up and down the court a bit quicker and put up points with ease.

When programs from power conferences make runs like this as lower seeds, it’s not seen in the same light as a Saint Peter’s run and for good reason. But it’s impressive nonetheless for these high majors with low seeds to still be dancing in the Sweet 16.

Matt Ehalt and I made our picks for this game, which will send a double-digit seed to the Elite Eight no matter what.

Matt Ehalt NCAA tournament against the spread (ATS) record: 22-17-1
Kyle Wood NCAA tournament ATS record: 17-26-1

Check the Latest NCAA Tournament Odds and Lines from SI Sportsbook

Miami celebrates after scoring during the second half of a college basketball game against Auburn in the second round of the NCAA tournament on Sunday, March 20, 2022, in Greenville, S.C. — Chris Carlson/AP

No. 10 Miami (25-10) vs. No. 11 Iowa State (22-12)

Time: 9:59 p.m. ET | TBS
Spread: Iowa State +2.5 (-118) | Miami -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Iowa State (+120) | Miami (-150)
Over/Under: Under 133 (-110) | Over 133 (-118)

Iowa State’s Path

The Cyclones forced two higher-seeded teams to play their game and came away with two outright wins as an underdog. Iowa State drew No. 6 LSU in the first round and defeated the Tigers, 59-54. The Cyclones severely limited LSU on offense and forced 19 turnovers to pull off the upset.

ISU embarrassed No. 3 Wisconsin in the second round. Johnny Davis was held to 4-16 shooting and the Badgers managed 49 points. Iowa State’s offense also had a poor showing and scored 54 points, but that was enough to keep its improbable run alive.

Miami’s Path

The Hurricanes squeaked by No. 7 USC in the opening round of the tournament. If a last-second, half-court Trojans three-point attempt had fallen softer on the glass, they would be watching the rest of the action unfold from home. But that shot didn’t find its mark, Miami beat USC and then blew out No. 2 Auburn in the following game. UM made life difficult for future lottery pick Jabari Smith, who shot just 3-16 in the game, and ran the Tigers off the floor in the second half to the tune of a 79-61 win.

Miami’s starters, four of whom are guards, all play heavy minutes and the rotation is led by Isaiah Wong, who scored 20-plus points to lead the team in both games.

Kyle Wood’s Bet: Miami -2.5

The Canes just made light work of one of the best defenses in college basketball and did so while connecting on just three three pointers. Iowa State’s defense is better than Auburn’s, but it doesn’t have a shot blocker like Walker Kessler to pack the paint.

Simply put, Miami has shotmakers but not in the way you’d expect for such a guard-dominated team. Outside shooting has not been a strength in the tournament and it’s unlikely those deep shots start to fall against the Cyclones, who defend the three-point line exceptionally well. The Hurricanes guards will need to continue penetrating and taking care of the ball—they’ve turned the ball over just seven times in two games.

I think the Hurricanes can manage to get to the 70-point mark against the Cyclones, who simply can’t keep up in a high-scoring game. Iowa State’s leading scorer, Izaiah Brockington, has shot poorly in the tournament (10-31) and that poor-shooting team isn’t built to survive a shootout.

Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Iowa State +2.5

I believed this whole time that Auburn would lose in the second round but I invested in USC. Sigh.

This is an intriguing matchup featuring the 14th- and 15th-ranked teams out of the 16 remaining squads in the tournament, according to KenPom. Iowa State ranks 38th while Miami is 45th. Saint Peter’s, naturally, is the only team below them.

Iowa State is known for its defense, ranking fifth at KenPom. Defense travels and can make up for its 160th-ranked offense. The Cyclones are only scoring 56.5 points in the tournament, but have held their opponents to an average of 51.5 per game.

Miami has the 18th-ranked offense but a defense in the 100s and is averaging 73.5 points per game in the tournament.

I’ve faded ACC teams in this tournament and it has not worked—but I’m goin g back to the well and taking Iowa State.

I like that I’m getting 2.5 points here, and I expect Izaiah Brockington to respond after facing two tougher defenses in LSU and Wisconsin. It’s a concern that Miami is a much-better offensive team than LSU and Wisconsin, but Iowa State’s defense is legit.

This game seems like it will come down to the wire and I’m willing to invest in the team with the elite facet of its game getting points. I’m also more wiling to trust a team that played in the Big 12 versus a team that competed in the weak ACC.

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More Betting, Fantasy and College Basketball:
• Final Four, Championship Game and Champion Bets
• Betting Advice: Which Region Will Win it All?
• Betting Advice: Saint Peter’s Futures
• Betting Advice: Championship Game Matchup, Outcome
• Duke Bettors Suffer Stunning Bad Beat
• How to Bet March Madness
• Top-Four Seeds Against the Spread
• Fantasy Impact: Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins
• Sweet 16 Rankings
• Re-Picking the Bracket

Published Mar 24, 2022

SI EDITORIAL