March Madness Elite Eight Best Bet: Don’t Bet Against Coach K

A best bet and analysis for Saturday’s West Region Elite Eight battle between No. 2 Duke and No. 4 Arkansas. Duke is a four-point favorite.

Frankie Taddeo | Mar 25, 2022

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After Thursday night’s Sweet 16 action, we now have half of the Elite Eight matchups set. Among the four clubs in action are the Big East champions, a blueblood program trying to send their Hall-of-Fame coach out with another championship, an SEC power that knocked out the No. 1 overall seed and a red-hot American Athletic Conference squad that is on a six-game winning streak both straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).

Did you ask for March Madness? Well, we are left with only one No. 1 seed entering Friday and underdogs (58%) lead the way at betting counters around the country.

Now, the question becomes: Does that trend continue in the Elite Eight?

In the first round, favorites went 22-10 SU but more importantly for sports bettors, underdogs posted a 17-15 ATS mark.

In the second round, favorites went 11-5 SU and 10-6 ATS in thrilling second round action that witnessed No. 15 St. Peter’s (+325), No. 11 Michigan (+215), No. 10 Miami(+255), No. 11 Iowa State (+170) and No. 8 North Carolina (+195) pull outright upsets that advanced them to the Sweet 16

Favorites are just 1-3 SU and ATS in thus far after only No. 2 Villanova covered as 4.5-point favorites. No. 2 Duke (+108), No. 4 Arkansas (+400) and No. 5 Houston (+107) all won outright and advanced to the Elite Eight.

Thus far in the NCAA tournament, favorites are ahead 34-18 SU while underdogs lead the way at 30-22 ATS.

Historical Trends In Elite Eight:

Last five Tournaments the better/higher seeds:

SU: 10-10 (50.0%)
ATS: 8-11-1 (41.1%)

Last two tournaments the better/higher seeds:

SU: 4-4 SU (50.0%)
ATS: 3-5 (37.5%)

Let’s dive right into the games!

Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

No. 4 Arkansas (28-8) vs. No. 2 Duke (31-6)

Spread: Arkansas +4 (-118) | Duke -4 (-110)
Total: 147.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-119)
Moneyline: Arkansas (+150) | Duke (-188)
Game Info: Saturday, March 26, 2022 | 8:49 p.m. ET | TBS
ATS Records: ARK: 21-14-1 | Duke: 19-16-2
Site: Chase Center - San Francisco, Calif.
Editor’s Note - Odds are subject to change.

The line has held steady since the opener, displaying No. 2 Duke as a 4-point favorite over No. 4 Arkansas at SI Sportsbook.

Duke, perhaps the most-talented team in the country, looks like they are coming together at the right time. Against one of the most talented defensive teams in the country in Texas Tech, the Blue Devils looked dominant in the second half by overcoming a 4-point halftime deficit in the Sweet 16. In fact, a deeper dive reveals that Duke made its final eight shots from the field, including an outstanding performance from the free throw line converting at an 88.2% clip on 17 attempts.

The Blue Devils are now the third overall betting choice at SI Sportsbook, listed at +450 to send Mike Krzyzewski into the sunset with a potential sixth national championship in his final season on the sidelines.

Perhaps the biggest reason why Duke is playing at such a high level is the production of Jeremy Roach, who is nearly doubling his regular season (8.6) scoring output averaging 14 points per game in the tournament thanks to a shooting a blistering 53.7% from the field. If the NCAA awarded the MOP award after only the first three rounds, the sophomore guard would be among the favorites to garner the honor.

Freshman Paolo Banchero (19.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 4.0 apg), who continues to fill up the box score, has become the dominant force Blue Devil fans envisioned he would be at this time of year. The versatile Banchero is easily the most vital player Duke needs in order to earn its first title since 2015.

Arkansas enters the Elite Eight with supreme confidence after upsetting the No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga thanks to perhaps its best all-around performance of the season. Arkansas, who is 8-2 SU over their last 10 games, has found its stride in the tournament after losing two of its three previous games prior to the big dance.

Despite three wins, the Razorbacks have burned bettors with a 1-2 ATS mark after failing to cover the spread in wins over Vermont and New Mexico State. However, the Razorbacks rewarded bettors who invested in the moneyline against Gonzaga cashing tickets at odds of +400 in the shocking Sweet 16 upset.

JD Notae has been outstanding in the tournament, averaging 18.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.3 assist and 3.7 steals per game. The one area the senior has struggled involves shooting from beyond the arc. Against the powerful Duke offensive attack, Notae, who is 4 of 22 (18%) from three-point range, will need to find his outside stroke against a Blue Devils team that is averaging 80.4 points per game.

The clear star for Eric Musselman’s squad has easily been forward Jaylin Williams. The emerging sophomore has produced a double-double in every tournament victory, averaging 12.7 points and 12.3 rebounds. If the Razorbacks have any hopes of posting a second consecutive upset in the Elite Eight, Williams will have to continue his impressive output. However, accomplishing that task will not be easy against Duke’s dominant 7’ 0” big man Mark Williams.

From a betting perspective, we discover that Duke is 2-1 ATS in this year’s NCAA Tournament games, with an impressive 8-1 run to the over spanning their last nine games overall. Respected money in Vegas is backing the Razorbacks’ magical run will end against Duke mostly due to less than stellar three-point shooting. Arkansas ranks 303rd in the country in three-point shooting at 31.1%, while Duke ranks 24th at 37.7%.

In the NCAA tournament, Duke’s talented squad has been lethal from deep, hitting 21 of 54 attempts (39%) and that will likely be the difference in this game.

BET: Duke -4

Check Out the Latest Odds at SI Sportsbook

SI NCAA MEN’S BASKETBALL BET REVIEW

2022 March Madness: 7-8 ATS
2022 NCAA Conference Tournaments: 7-1 ATS
2021/2022 Overall: 25-25 ATS

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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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Published Mar 25, 2022

FRANKIE TADDEO

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frankie primarily performs as Sports Illustrated's Senior Betting Analyst providing his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene.