Kansas vs. Providence Spread, Bets, and Picks for Sweet 16 Matchup

The Jayhawks are 7.5 point favorites for their Sweet 16 matchup against Providence on Friday.

SI Editorial | Mar 24, 2022

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Men's Sweet 16: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 4 Providence

Bill Self’s Kansas squad finds itself in a familiar position in the Sweet 16 with a clear path to the Elite Eight. What stands in the way is the best Providence team in a few decades, which is making its deepest tournament run since 1997.

This 1-4 matchup is chalk for the Midwest Region side of the bracket but both the Friars and Jayhawks had a scare during the opening weekend against lesser opponents. This Big 12 vs. Big East matchup has the third-largest spread of the round, indicating oddsmakers are all the way out on Providence getting past KU.

Matt Ehalt and I broke down this game and made our picks.

No. 4 Providence (27-5) vs. No. 1 Kansas (30-6)

Time: 7:29 p.m. ET | TBS
Spread: Providence +7.5 (-118) | Kansas -7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Providence (+260) | Kansas (-350)
Over/Under: Under 141.5 (-118) | Over 141.5 (-110)

Providence’s Path to the Sweet 16

The Friars were a popular pick to get upset in the first round—I personally fell victim to being in on No. 13 South Dakota State. But the Friars ar still standing and have inspired some confidence on their road to the Sweet 16. South Dakota State has one of the best offenses in the country but Providence's defense held them to 57 points and the Friars won by nine. The second round brought on another double-digit seed, No. 12 Richmond and Providence stomped out the Spiders in a thorough 79-51 victory. Providence's forward, Noah Horchler, has been the star of the team thus far, leading the Friars in scoring and rebounding in both tournament games.

Kansas’s Path to the Sweet 16

The Jayhawks did what No. 1 seeds should do and that's win in the first round. The Jayhawks beat up on No. 16 Texas Southern and showed no signs of weakness in an 83-56 victory. Things got a little dicey against No. 9 Creighton as the Bluejays rained down threes on Kansas’ defense and were never out of the game. Still, the Jayhawks managed to walk away with a 79-72 but looked especially vulnerable on a poor shooting night.

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Kyle Wood’s Bet: Kansas -7.5

The Jayhawks got their scare out of the way. It’s time to roll to the Final Four.

Kansas is the better team in all facets of the game and has a true star in Ochai Agbaji. The Sweet 16 would be a good time for the Big 12 Player of the Year to explode. Thus far in the tournament, the Friars have only faced lesser competition and haven’t seen a team with a volume scorer like Agbaji.

Providence’s record is impressive, but it’s also a bit misleading. It dropped its two most recent games against top-25 opponents (Villanova twice) and per KenPom, the Friars are the luckiest team in the country and by far the luckiest remaining in the field. Luck won't be enough against a team with top-end talent that’s going to get its points no matter the opponent it’s facing. I like the Jayhawks in this spot with a trip to the Elite Eight very much within reach.

Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Kansas -7.5

Ed Cooley deserves a lot of credit for getting this Providence team to the Sweet 16. The Big East squad has had a great season and certainly cost some folks money by defeating the trendy underdog pick No. 13 South Dakota State in the first round.

Kansas, though, isn’t South Dakota State or Richmond. Kansas is a powerhouse and has one of the best players in the country in Ochai Agbaji.

Three of Providence's five losses have been by double-digit points. The single-digit losses both came against Villanova.

Kansas has the No. 6 offense and No. 27 defense per KenPom and played in the toughest conference.

While Bill Self's team didn’t cover against Creighton, the Jayhawks haven’t scored less than 70 points since January. I’m not sure Providence’s defense can contain Kansas’s offense.

This feels like a 75-65 game. I can see a scenario in which Providence covers, but I’m more comfortable backing Kansas laying the points.

Check the Latest Odds for the men's NCAA tournament at SI Sportsbook

Matt Ehalt NCAA tournament against the spread (ATS) record: 22-17-1
Kyle Wood NCAA tournament ATS record: 17-26-1

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Published Mar 24, 2022

SI EDITORIAL