NCAA Conference Tournament Best Bets for Thursday Night

Picking winners for Penn State-Illinois, Arkansas-Auburn and TCU-Kansas State.

Conference tournament play tipped off Wednesday in many of the top leagues around the country and today marks the second day of the action.

It’s the second round in the Big Ten and SEC brackets and the Big 12 is already on to the quarterfinals. SI Betting broke down three of the top games on the docket for today and offered a pick for each.

All six teams mentioned in the game breakdowns below are currently in SI’s projected field of 68. Get a feel for some of the teams you can expect to see next week in the Big Dance as they duke it out for their respective conference tournament titles.

Conference Tournament Betting Previews: Big Ten | SEC | Big 12

Big Ten Tournament Second Round:
No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 7 Illinois Fighting Illini

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET | Big Ten Network
Spread: Penn State +2.5 (-110) | Illinois -2.5 (-110)|
Moneyline: PSU (+115) | ILL (-150)
Total: 140.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)

The Nittany Lions (19–12, 10–10 Big Ten) got the better of the Fighting Illini (20–11, 11–9 Big Ten) twice this season. Penn State has won five out of six heading into Chicago while Illinois has dropped two of its last three games.

The first meeting between the two teams was in December, a 74-59 win for the Nittany Lions in Champaign. Jalen Pickett, the team’s top scorer, scored 20 and Andrew Funk matched that output. Pickett more than doubled that performance when the Fighting Illini came to State College. He went off for 41 points and added eight assists. Terrence Shannon Jr.’s 20 points were not enough to offset Pickett’s big game and Illinois again lost by double digits, 93-81.

Penn State is liable to make teams pay from the perimeter. It ranks fourth in DI with 10.8 made threes per game and shoots a very respectable 38.9% from outside. Illinois has a stout defense, but it let up more than 90 points the last time these teams played. Pickett has also been sensational against the Fighting Illini this year. You can play it safe and take the Nittany Lions with the points, but I’d opt for a larger payout and back them on the moneyline.

And for what it’s worth, Penn State is currently on the bubble, so there’s added incentive to get up for this game and strengthen its case to the committee.

BET: Penn State Moneyline (+125)

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SEC Tournament Second Round: 
No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. No. 7 Auburn Tigers

Time: 7 p.m. ET | SEC Network
Spread: Arkansas -2.5 (-110) | Auburn +2.5 (-110)|
Moneyline: ARK (-161) | Auburn (+125)
Total: 144 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)

The Razorbacks (19–12, 8–10 SEC) lost their last three heading into the tournament against tough competition (at Alabama, at Tennessee, Kentucky). The Tigers (20–11, 10–8 SEC) had a rough stretch in February though they ended the regular season on a high note with a home win over Tennessee after a near-upset on the road against Alabama.

Auburn scored a 72-59 victory at home when these teams last met in the first week of January. Arkansas shot below 35% from the field, 2–16 from three and missed 13 free throws in that contest. Anthony Black was virtually the only player who had success against the Tigers as he scored a game-high 23 points, though the bulk of that damage was done at the free-throw line. Ricky Council IV, the Razorbacks’ leading scorer on the year, shot just 5–15 in that game and finished with 14 points. Willie Green Jr. gave Auburn an efficient 19 points and Allen Flanigan added 18 off the bench.

Arkansas has the talent on its roster to make a deep run in Nashville and in the Big Dance, but it will be up against a stout defense in its first postseason game. Auburn ranks top-20 in field goal percentage defense (40.2%) and No. 5 nationally in opponent three-point percentage (28.8). Those figures, combined with the Razorbacks’ poor free-throw percentage (69%) makes me lean toward the Tigers taking the points.

BET: Auburn +2.5 (-110)

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Big 12 Tournament Quarterfinals:
No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs vs. No. 3 Kansas State Wildcats

Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
Spread: TCU -2 (-110) | Kansas State +2 (-110)
Moneyline: TCU (-133) | KSU (+105)
Total: 147.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)

The Horned Frogs (20–11, 9–9 Big 12) and Wildcats (23–8, 11–7 Big 12) split their regular-season series. TCU, ranked No. 22 in the AP poll, won 82-68 at home in mid-January and Kansas State, the No. 12 team in the country, picked up an 82-61 victory in front of its fans in early February.

Mike Miles Jr., the top scorer for the Horned Frogs, finished with 13 points and a season-high 11 assists in his team’s win earlier this year. He was sidelined with a knee injury in the road loss, but he’ll be active this week in Kansas City. On the other hand, Kansas State has the highest-scoring duo in the conference to lean on in Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, both of whom average better than 17 points per game. They both had success against TCU, but it was Nowell who led the team to victory with 18 points and seven dimes.

Both teams are coming off losses, but the Wildcats have been the hotter team over the last month. Even though these teams beat one another by double digits, they match up well and they could be in for a tight quarterfinals game. Given that, I’ll take the higher seed getting points.

BET: Kansas State +2 (-110)

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