Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Keys to the Game: Kansas Jayhawks
CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Bearcats face a tight turnaround for a Big Monday matchup against No. 3 Kansas following the tough 69-65 loss to Oklahoma.
Kansas is licking its wounds as well after falling on the road to UCF just a few hours later on Saturday as it's anyone's game in the toughest conference in America. The Jayhawks enter this game ranked 14th in the NET rankings and 18th on KenPom, while Cincinnati sits at No. 36 in the NET and No. 33 on KenPom.
ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Kansas a 74.3% chance of winning.
According to Sport Reference, Cincinnati is 4-3 against Kansas since 1949 as they face off for the first time as conference foes.
When Kansas Has The Ball
The time to rest could loom very large in this game as Kansas plays a short six-man rotation, while Cincinnati usually leans on 9-10 guys per game. Just six KU players average at least 15 minutes per game, headlined by two of the top offensive players in the country.
The defensive game plan starts with slowing down Wooden Award candidates in 6-foot-6 guard Kevin McCullar (20 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists) and 7-foot-1 center Hunter Dickinson (19.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, 1.4 steals).
The Jayhawk offensive world revolves around those two players and leaves a tough matchup for John Newman III and his wingmates, along with Viktor Lakhin/Aziz Bandaogo on the Dickinson front. McCullar and Dickinson have fantastic touch around the basket and thrive on high-efficiency two-point shots.
Cincinnati's defense has been stellar in conference play and that can't change against arguably the best 1-2 offensive punch in the Big 12. No one in the country moves the ball better than this veteran Kansas team (21 assists per game, first nationally).
The gravity of those two players helps tremendously with that ball pinging, but as mentioned, UC's played about as strong a man-to-man defense a team can play at the highest levels of the sport. Rebounding is crucial in this game, especially in a conference with such great defense.
UC's lost that battle in back-to-back games after entering conference play as arguably the best rebounding team in the Big 12 play. Kansas is just 124th in rebounding with those two players amassing nearly half their 37.3 average. Keeping that top duo off the glass is imperative to swinging rebounding back in Cincinnati's favor.
When Cincinnati Has The Ball
The Big 12 style of defense is taking a toll on Cincinnati's efficiency, especially without a sharpshooter like CJ Fredrick.
Cincinnati is down to 71 points per game in the conference and has posted an abysmal 62.5% free throw mark (last in Big 12). Firstly, UC has to be more efficient there in a brutal road environment. Shoot 70% from the line in the past five games, and you are at the top of the Big 12 standings.
70% would rank 235th nationally, it's not asking a lot. Kansas opponents are shooting 71.5% against them this season. Another low 60s outing just likely won't cut it inside Allen Fieldhouse. In the Jayhawk's three losses this season, the opponent is 44-of-55 from the line. It matters greatly on Big Monday.
Still, UC could go 20-of-20 at the line and not make enough field goals to win. The offense has to flow better through Lakhin and the rest of the frontcourt, then take that flow and attack Dickinson. He's had 11 turnovers across the Jayhawks' three losses and has been in foul trouble at times.
Treating him with brute force on offense and the occasional well-timed trap for a turnover on defense could be a great way to squeeze out a few more possessions while knocking Dickinson off of his game. The Michigan transfer is the defensive anchor of this team, posting a nasty, team-best 90.2 defensive rating. Cincinnati cannot continue to miss close looks at the rim (less than 50% on layups against Oklahoma)
McCullar is right up there as well (96.4, third on the team), as Cincinnati has two clear players to disrupt en route to a win.
Prediction: 78-70 Jayhawks
UC should be able to hang strong in this game for large parts of the night, but it's impossible to trust this team's shooting right now at any part of the floor. On top of the free throw mark, they are outside the top half of the league in two-point and three-point percentages through five games.
Kansas brings too much offense to this one, as Cincinnati can't find a go-to scorer in the final minutes to keep pace and pull the upset.
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