Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Keys to the Game: @ TCU Horned Frogs

Cincinnati can likely lose just one more time this season to have a shot at making the 2024 NCAA tournament.

CINCINNATI — Things are in dire straits for the Bearcats NCAA Tournament hopes as they travel to face TCU on Saturday. Cincinnati can likely afford just one more loss for the rest of the season, in a conference where they are yet to pair consecutive wins.

Sweeping TCU would be a good way to bounce back and keep the season (finitely) alive down the stretch.

The 80-76 loss to Oklahoma State dropped Cincinnati to 45th in the NET (lowest ranking this season), while TCU is ranked 37th in the NET. Cincinnati is 41st on KenPom to TCU's 31st mark and the Horned Frogs are 71.8% favorites to win on ESPN's Matchup Predictor.

Cincinnati is trying to stay perfect against TCU and move to 7-0 all-time in the series.

"I think the first thing and it's kind of what I told him in the locker room, I love my group of guys," Miller said after Wednesday's loss. "That's not a coaching line. That's not for the media. I really, really liked this team. I really liked these guys. We got awesome guys. We just respond to this point it's got to keep happening, but we get down, we come out. We find a way to fight back and games we've done it all year. 

"And that quality that character. I'm proud to coach them. I'm lucky to be able to coach these guys. We just haven't quite figured out as a group, the little stuff that you got to do to get over the hump. And the reason that I like them is because we respond and we're tough and we have good kids, and they're good players. So that's why we're in every game. We're in every game because of the character and quality they have. But we're in every game, even when we shouldn't be because we haven't turned that corner on what this winning thing is really all about. And I told them that's on me to get us there."

When TCU Has The Ball

This is a less-than-ideal opponent to face following a brutal display from Cincinnati's defense. TCU can put UC in an even heavier ball screen blender than OSU did on Wednesday.

The Horned Frogs are averaging the most points in the conference (77.2 PPG) and boast the 25th-best offense in the country by adjusted efficiency. Cincinnati held them right at 77 points inside Fifth Third Arena on Jan. 16. A big reason they didn't hit 80-plus points was a poor night from lead scorer Emmanuel Miller.

Cincinnati needs to hold him to a similar 5-of-14 shooting mark he hit in Clifton. TCU goes as Miller does, posting an 8-2 record this season when he scores at least 17 points. The rangy 6-foot-7 wing will likely get a heavy dose of John Newman III. If Cincinnati's wing defenders play like they did on Wednesday it'll be a long flight back home.

Three other players are averaging double-scoring figures for TCU, but none are above 12 points. Miller is harder to key in on too as he's not the main ballhandler and ranks second on TCU behind Jameer Nelson Jr. in usage rate. Miller & Co.'s three-point shooting could blow this game wide open.

TCU is the best outside shooting team in the Big 12 (37.9%), but they take just 18.5 per game (12th in the Big 12). Funneling the offense inside and being disciplined with those close contests is the best way to make it as hard as possible on a rotation with no players taller than 6-foot-7 averaging 20-plus minutes.

When Cincinnati Has The Ball

Will the real shooters please stand up?

Cincinnati was supposed to be built on defense, pace, and shooting this season. All three of those weren't up to par on Wednesday and the latter two have evaporated as the seasons gone along.

The Bearcats are operating at the 194th fastest pace nationally this season and are shooting just 50.7% from two (201st) and 32.6% from three (248th). Those numbers have expectedly gotten even worse as the competition toughened up in Big 12 play. Cincinnati has to find its shooting stroke at all levels of the floor down this stretch or they won't keep pace on Saturday.

Nor will they find any kind of offensive pace when they travel to Houston in the middle of the week. Cincinnati did a good job inside against Oklahoma State but the three-point and free-throw line is a mess that has to flip Saturday (32.1% from deep past five games)

Oklahoma State was a light defense compared to the rest of the Big 12 and so is TCU, allowing 76.2 points in conference play (13th in Big 12) and 16.3 assists (13th). Work the ball around, stay in constant motion, and maybe some of these outside shots will start to fall.

Or maybe there just isn't enough shooting on this team to compete in the Big 12. Daniel Skillings Jr. is the only player shooting at least 33% from deep on three-plus attempts in Big 12 play. Add in the fact UC is 302nd nationally in free throw percentage (68.5%) and it's clear the shooting talent just wasn't as good as expected in the preseason.

They'll have to turn that around against a team that's 11-2 at home.

Prediction: 80-78 TCU

I picked Cincinnati on Bearcat Blitz but I'm flipping my official choice to TCU. The Horned Frogs stick a fork in the Bearcats NCAA Tournament hopes on Saturday. Cincinnati will own the glass by 10-plus boards, but shoot below 45% from the field in another narrow defeat (would be the fifth five-point margin or less in the past six UC games).

Emmanuel Miller gets his revenge with a 20-plus point outing at home to help TCU inch closer to the at-large bid that's slipping away from Cincinnati.

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