Game Preview: Navy and Triple Option Travel to Clifton

UC is 2-3 all-time against Navy, including two-straight wins.

CINCINNATI — The conference winning streak is over for the Cincinnati Bearcats (6-2, 3-1) as it tries to hold onto another defining run this weekend against Navy (3-5, 3-3).

The 30-game home winning streak is on the line after Navy lost starting QB Tai Lavatai for the season last week, and this should be a get-right spot for UC before Nip at Night against East Carolina.

UC is a 19.5-point favorite over Navy, and ESPN's Matchup Predictor has UC winning 90.9% of the time. The Bearcats have a significant edge in total game EPA (49th, 117th) and net yards per play (26th, 122nd).

The 19-game conference win streak evaporated following a 25-21 punch in the mouth from UCF. Yet, everything Cincinnati wants to accomplish this season is still in front of them. Win out, and UC is guaranteed to play in the AAC Title game.

"I know for me, Sunday was really good to be around our guys and to recognize their demeanors, faces, and their ability to go back out there and go back to work," Luke Fickell said about the aftermath of UCF. "They were disappointed of course, but it can’t be something that holds you back. That is what I always worry about because of some of the successes that we have had, how do we rebound from some of these things and how long does it sting or how long does it stay with you? What we can’t do is allow it to compound and cause problems for continued weeks. We know we have a long way to go and we have to get better."

Let's get into the preview as UC tries to avoid consecutive conference losses for the first time this decade.

*All EPA figures are from CFBGraphs.com and BCFToys.com.

Defend The Dive

Even with Lavatai on the mend, it's no secret what the Midshipmen do on offense. The triple-option attack is coming for Cincinnati's biggest defensive weakness (90th EPA/rush allowed).

Navy is 34th in EPA/rush this season, seventh nationally in total rushing (244.5 yards per game), and first in carries (61.1 per game). 

They aren't cashing in when it matters though (43rd in rushing scores, two per game).

"When you're planning for a team like Navy, it's always a little bit of a unique week," Fickell said. "In some ways, it was great. It was awesome to come back in here and actually be able to completely shift gears and get your mind on to something a little bit different. I know that every team is different, and every year is different. Sometimes week to week can be a bit different and that's where you really have to just continue to grow and make sure, more than anything, that the play on the field will take care of itself. The locker room and the preparation were so critical."

The rushing prowess may be a worry on the surface, given UC's struggles on that front against UCF, Arkansas, and South Florida, but the dive is the difference. Those three other schools used a spread-out dynamic rushing attack to attack edges on the Cincinnati defense. 

Navy relies on the dive right up the middle to unlock other parts in the option game.

Good luck with that against the top-two graded defensive players in the country by PFF. Defensive lineman Dontay Corleone and Ivan Pace Jr. are what awaits Navy up the middle. Still, UC really needs Jabari Taylor back soon to quell any major concerns on the edge.

“There's never a real comfort level of stopping the dive of the triple option, to be honest with you," Fickell said. "They do a really good job of it, but I mean, the first thing it comes down to is the people. And it's better to have those big fellas inside, they give us a better opportunity, that's for sure. But it's all about angles, and they might be 295 pounds or 300 pounds and we're bigger, but it still comes down to angles. It still comes down to two or three yards and those things leave you awake at night when guys are running the ball up the middle for two and three yards every [play]. Makes it difficult.”

Ballcarrier Brigade

Navy has plenty of options to carry the football against UC. Junior QB Xavier Arline took over for the injured-Lavatai last week and scored the game-winning 23-yard rushing TD to take out Temple in OT.

Arline also plays lacrosse at Navy and finished the Temple game with 16 carries for 54 yards, to go with one incomplete pass. Navy ran the ball a whopping 71 times against Temple. Arline is 11-of-34 passing in his career, do not expect more than 5-7 throws in this game.

“Obviously, discipline," Fickell said in comparing the high-powered rushing attacks from UCF and Navy. "When you have the triple option team, a lot of things they did made it tough and a little bit more difficult on your discipline, based on your eyes and based on your leverages of things. Every year and every week regardless of if it's playing a spread team or a triple option team the next week. They all help you continue to build if you have a system and I think that's what we always envision regardless. In college football, you're going to get something different each and every week. But it's all to help you build. Every game does help you prepare for the next.”

Taking out Lavatai, Navy has six players with at least 25 carries this season. Fullback Daba Fofano leads the team in rushing (488 yards), carries (132), and TDs (five). He sets the tempo and pace for players like WR Maqual Haywood (61 carries, 394 yards), who is 20th nationally in yards per carry.

Other ball carriers include WR Vincent Terrell Jr. (49 rushes, 170 yards), and FB Anton Hall (51 rushes, 164 yards).

"That's where some of the depth of things has been a little bit of a challenge," Fickell said. "You've got two guys who have played a lot of football for you. Obviously, Malik (Vann) going out in game two, and Jabari (Taylor) out basically for the last two games. It does it puts a little strain, but that's where we've talked about those younger guys, like Noah Potter and Justin Wodtly … A lot of those guys have to really step up and fill a bigger role. That's what they have to do. That's what they're expected to do."

Bounceback Bryant

Saturday should be the best passing matchup of the season for the Cincinnati Bearcats. Navy is downright awful in pass coverage (last nationally in EPA/pass)—they are the least efficient passing defense in the country.

A welcome reprieve for Ben Bryant, who hasn't been consistent since conference play began. 

The senior became a different QB when the calendar turned from September, and overall, he has not been good in the fourth quarter. Yes, crucial drops have hurt the Bearcats this past month, but there have been way more off-target throws.

Ben Bryant Monthly and Quarter Splits / ESPN

Bryant has looked a little better in practice than Evan Prater—but with -91 yards rushing from him on the season and a shaky offensive line (t-93rd in sacks allowed per game), the advantages Bryant brings don't seem as evident compared to Prater. UC's offense could really use the bailouts brought on by a mobile QB.

"To be honest with you, I think he does a really good job," Fickell said about Bryant dealing with outside criticism. "I think sometimes it's a little bit harder on the other side with Evan (Prater), and don't want him to get frustrated. I don't want him to lose confidence in what it is that he's doing. In that room, coach Gino (Guidugli) does a great job; those guys know we've got confidence in them, whether we have to reassure them. We can and do at times, but I hope that they don't pay too much attention to the outside noise. I'm not saying they don't hear it because you got to live under a rock not to hear it right? I don't think most of those guys live under a rock. I think it's a part of being able to grow up and mature and understand that what really matters is the guys in this room.”

The weather might be a big factor in Bryant's struggles continuing.

Cincinnati is forecasted to get plenty of rain on Saturday and wind gusts up to 40 MPH during the game. Throw out these expectations if that rings true, but in a vacuum, there's no excuse for a lackluster passing game.

Navy is allowing an average QB rating of 156.75 (122nd nationally), 272 passing yards per game (115th), 2.3 passing TDs per game (125th), and has a 7.6% sack rate (34th). The time is now for Bryant to cement his hold on the job for the stretch run and quell outside noise.

The game kicks off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPNU. It's available on fuboTV—start your free trial here.

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