Preview: UC Travels West For Friday Night Bout Against BYU

Cincinnati is 0-2 all-time against the Cougars.

CINCINNATI — UC football hits the road for the first time in the Big 12 this week facing a Friday night matchup against the BYU Cougars. All four new entries into the Big 12 are looking for their first league win as Cincinnati enters the game slight betting favorites.

The Bearcats have swung all the way to two-point favorites as they look for their first-ever win over BYU. Cincinnati is 0-2 all-time against BYU, with both losses coming last decade. ESPN's Matchup Predictor has Cincinnati winning 57.1% of the time against a BYU team coming off its first loss of the season.

The 4,551-foot elevation could be a key factor in this game, prompting UC to post a light week of practice.

"(The altitude) is something that we can't control, can't worry about, our guys just have to go out and prepare," UC head coach Scott Satterfield said this week. "I think the big thing we've talked about this week is getting rest. Really just getting your mind and body rested well this week as much as we can prior to going out there to help us on that Friday night.”

When UC Has The Ball

If UC can keep Emory Jones clean and find some kind of consistency on the ground, it should get back over the 24-point barrier it's faced in recent weeks.

The Cougars' strength lies in its front, just like UC. They allow 130 rush yards per game (67th nationally) and are eighth in EPA/rush allowed thanks to the play of four defensive linemen graded 70 or higher on PFF (Tyler Batty, Blake Mangelson, John Nelson, Jackson Cravens). UC mixed in a rotation on the O-line last week and could need that mix again to make sure the group is fresh for the fourth quarter.

That foursome will surely test that depth, having amassed 31 of the team's 54 QB pressures this season. Keeping them out of the backfield is crucial. Linebacker Ben Bywater can clean things up behind that group as well. He leads the team with 15 stops this season, but his status is up in the air with a shoulder issue.

In coverage, the Cougars are led by cornerback Jakob Robinson (67.9 PFF grade, 17 catches allowed on 30 targets for 205 yards, one TD, and two INTs). Jones should avoid him and attack the two other high-snap players, Eddie Heckard (61.2 grade) and Kamden Garret (63.1 grade). 

BYU has some shaky safeties as well (none graded 65.5 or better by PFF), leading to the 61st-most passing plays allowed nationally of 10-plus yards (34), but only three 30-plus yard pass plays allowed (ninth-best nationally). They are dealing with heavy injuries in that safety room that could leave them with a pair of backups starting Friday night. 

Depending on BYU's personnel, Cincinnati may get more big play chances against this version of the defense..

"We need a little bit more protection on those particular plays and if you hit those, that's 14 points and now it's a different game," Satterfield said about explosive plays. "That’s what we talked to our guys about. It comes down to a few plays. You can’t just go ahead and change a whole lot. We're going to keep doing what we're doing because there's plays to be made out there."

When BYU Has The Ball

It's Kedon Slovis's world in Provo, Utah (1,017 yards on 60.3% passing with eight TDs, and three INTs).

The veteran college quarterback has been the Cougars' best offensive player thus far, although that's not a massive bar to clear on one of the more average offenses in the country. All the ball movement and point production have largely relied on his arm thanks to a putrid rushing attack (61 yards per game, 128th nationally, 107th in EPA/rush).

Analytics or raw numbers, BYU has not been able to find a running game this year and now faces a Cincinnati team ranked fifth nationally in EPA/rush allowed, and 11th in success rate allowed (positive EPA on just 30.1% of carries). LJ Martin (229 rushing yards, two TDs, four yards per carry), is the only Cougar with more than 29 yards rushing this year.

"They do have some good skilled wide receivers that have made some great catches," Satterfield said about the Cougars offense. "They certainly have some good players that he can get the ball to. I know that they want to get their running game going a little bit more. They're probably disappointed in how they run the football because that'll certainly help Slovis. So, we anticipate them trying to get the running game going this week. That always helps the quarterback for sure. Slovis is a good football player. He's won a ton of football games in his career and again great poise and I think that's the one thing that you will see when we face him.”

UC can and should make the Cougars one-dimensional in this game—then it's all about limiting big plays. BYU's relied on Slovis to hit those for most of their scoring total. Three of their four most targeted wide receivers have an average depth of target above 11 yards. The Cougars like to bomb it and now go up against a defense that teams have loved targeting downfield.

Although, the receivers aren't the biggest worry. BYU's best pass catcher is tight end Isaac Rex (75 PFF grade, team-high 260 receiving yards, 10.2 yards after catch per reception). Gang tackling him for minimal YAC is another key to this one.

Prediction: UC 27-20

The veteran-laden Cincinnati defense comes up clutch again in this game as they allow just two plays over 20 yards and force the Cougars into a couple of frustrating field goals in the red zone.

Cincinnati doubles up that big pass play tally for a bounceback game from Emory Jones on the ground and through the air. The Cougars' injuries pop up in key spots and UC gets its first win in the Big 12.

The game kicks off at 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

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