2020 Dodgers Player Projections: Dustin May

2020 Dodgers Player Projections: Dustin May

Feb 14, 2020; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Dustin May (85) warms up during spring training. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Dustin May is expected to start the 2020 season at Triple-A Oklahoma City. While I understand the thinking behind it, I don't have to like it.

There is simply no doubt in my mind, however, that the 22-year-old right-hander out of Justin, Texas is worthy of both a major league job and a spot in the starting rotation. But such is life in the big city ... where Los Angeles has more strong arms than it can possibly employ. At one time.

As it stands this afternoon, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, David Price and Julio Urias are announced locks to begin the season in the rotation. That leaves leading contender Alex Wood, Ross Stripling, and Tony Gonsolin, but not apparently, Mr. May to compete for the final slot. Please note that I never expected Jimmy Nelson to be a serious contender.

The Dodgers trotted out 11 starting pitchers in 2019, six of whom made at least 13 starts, and another two who took the ball six or more times. There is every reason to expect something similar in 2020. And I'd bet your life that we'll see a six-man rotation at least a couple of turns through during the campaign.

L.A. has avoided using the dreaded "oblique" label to describe May's current status, instead saying that he's been dealing with a sore "side." Whatever the diagnosis, the club has its excuse to slow play the youngster and give the other candidates (especially Wood) a clearer path to the coveted number five job.

Assuming that May's injury is a minor one, I expect him to log more than the approximately 135 innings per for the last three seasons in the coming one. A workload of 170, including postseason, would be ideal. 

The only question is, how much of the work will be logged in the Pacific Coast League as opposed to the bigs? Not having the answer to that one makes projecting the major league numbers only a tad difficult. But we shall persevere.

2019 stats:

2-3 W/L, 14 G, 4 GS, 34 2/3, 14 ER, 33 H, 5 BB, 32 Ks, 3.63 ERA, 1.096.

Career stats:

2-3 W/L, 14 G, 4 GS, 34 2/3, 14 ER, 33 H, 5 BB, 32 Ks, 3.63 ERA, 1.096.

Baseball Reference projects May's 2020 season this way:

3-3 W/L, 52 IP, 24 ER, 49 H, 16 BB, 53 Ks, 4.15 ERA, 1.250, 1 SV.

Considerably more optimistic, Steamer projects the following:

7-6 W/L, 31 G, 16 GS, 107 IP, 4.01 ERA, 4.17 FIP..

My projections:

9-5 W/L, 46 G, 14 GS, 118 IP, 3.49 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 3.61 FIP, 126 IP, 132 Ks, 3 SV.

Comment: Interestingly, while the Dodgers seem to be leaning toward limiting May's innings in 2020, the guy who actually needs some thought given to that type of monitoring is Julio Urias. Yes, still.

In two seasons since his June, 2017 shoulder surgery, Urias has thrown 83 2/3 major league innings and 13 2/3 minor league frames, with an additional 10 in the postseason. And he's going to go from pitching 22 April-through-October frames in 2018 to 91 in 2019 to some 150, 160 or 170 in 2020?

Not on your life. So forget what the club is saying about Urias as a starter only this coming season. He's going to spend a fair amount of time in the bullpen.

If this projections piece intrigues, here are five more: Cody Bellinger, Kiké Hernandez, Justin Turner, Will Smith and Joc Pederson.

You almost might like our prospect watch series: Omar Estevez, Zach McKinstry, Miguel Vargas and Cristian Santana. And our little ditty series, set to music: Willie Davis and Max Muncy.

And remember, glove conquers all.

Howard Cole has been writing about baseball on the internet since Y2K. Follow him on Twitter.