2020 Dodgers Player Projections: Walker Buehler

2020 Dodgers Player Projections: Walker Buehler

Feb 29, 2020; Salt River Pima-Maricopa, Arizona, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Walker Buehler (21) throws against the Colorado Rockies during the first inning of a spring training game at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

We can debate whether Walker Buehler is the ace of the Los Angeles staff or not until we're Dodgers blue in the face. Or we can set that aside, be respectful to Cooperstown-bound Clayton Kershaw, who's still stewing about losing a ring to the Houston Astros, and just say this: 

Buehler is damn good. He takes the ball every fifth day, he's as bulldog a Dodger as the guy with the original moniker -- Orel Hershiser -- and he just plain misses bats. He misses a ton of bats. He makes hitters look like children, is what he does. 

He's the club's best big-game pitcher, is what he is. Witness the 2.72 earned run average, the 0.883 WHIP and 44 strikeouts in 36 1/3 career postseason innings. And that's including the rough five-inning, five-earned rookie start in the 2018 National League Division Series versus Atlanta. Subtract that and the October ERA is 1.74.

2019 stats:

14-4 W/L, 30 G, 30  GS, 182 1/3, 66 ER, 153 H, 37 BB, 215 Ks, 3.26 ERA, 1.042.

Career stats:

23-9 W/L, 62 G, 53 GS, 329 IP, 114 ER, 259 H, 82 BB, 378 Ks, 3.12 ERA, 1.036.

Baseball Reference projects Buehler's 2020 season this way:

11-5 W/L, 162 IP, 62 ER, 49 H, 43 BB, 186 Ks, 3.44 ERA, 1.093, 1 SV.

As is often the case, Steamer's projections are sunnier:

14-9 W/L, 32 G, 32 GS, 194 IP, 3.27 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 1.038.

My projections:

16-7 W/L, 30 G, 30 GS, 177 IP, 228 K, 3.31 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 1.041.

Comment: I've projected Buehler to have fewer starts and innings than either BR or Fangraphs because I expect L.A. to run away with the National League West. And I  expect them to be that much more careful with the world's most precious resource -- starting pitching -- than they were last year under similar circumstances. Saving those bullets for October.

They'll do the same thing with Kershaw, David Price and Julio Urias (who will spend some time in the bullpen in 2020; club spin notwithstanding). Several Dodgers will take a turn in the fifth spot in the rotation, so there will be no need to rest any of those guys. Or at least, not based on how things look as of March 3.

The expectation here is that Kershaw gets the Opening Day start in a nod to history -- it'll be his franchise record 10th such outing -- with Buehler pitching the following day as the number two. Buehler is no number two, however. Not really. Not in 2019, not in 2020 and probably not in 2021 either.

Also: If this projections piece intrigues, here are six more: Cody Bellinger, Kiké Hernandez, Dustin May, Joc Pederson, Will Smith and Justin Turner, 

You almost might like our prospect watch series: Omar Estevez, Zach McKinstry, Cristian Santana and Miguel Vargas. And our little ditty series, set to music: Willie Davis and Max Muncy.

And remember, glove conquers all.

Howard Cole has been writing about baseball on the internet since Y2K. Follow him on Twitter.