Injuries Didn't Hurt Cincinnati Reds Pitching the Most in 2023

If Reds pitching hopes to improve, they will focus on this specific area

The Cincinnati Reds struggled with pitching in 2023. While the bullpen salvaged what it could, the starting pitching set things back more times than not. One specific stat stands out as a key to improving the overall production of the pitching in 2024.

The first thing you will notice when looking at the Reds pitching stats for last season is the 4.83 ERA. It’s not great. Only five teams had a higher ERA than Cincinnati. 

The ERA stat is a culmination of many factors, including luck. This is typically where an optimistic guy like me would say the Reds ERA was unlucky, but that’s not what the numbers say.

One of the most reliable ERA-prediction numbers is xFIP. It focuses on what the pitcher controls, strikeouts and walks, and calculates the home runs that should have been given up based on the league average home run to fly ball ratio. Basically, if you have a good strikeout rate, low walk rate, and you allow more ground balls than fly falls, your xFIP will be good.

The Reds had the eighth lowest strikeout rate, the fifth highest walk rate, and were second to last in ground ball rate.

The Reds will improve in strikeout rate as their young arms get healthy. The walk rate may also improve with health. The biggest concern is keeping the ball on the ground.

According to StatCast, Great American Ballpark was the top ballpark for allowing home runs over the past three seasons. Yes, even more friendly to homers than Coors Field or Yankee Stadium.

More Analysis: Did Elly De La Cruz Have Late Season Breakthrough?

The fact that only 38.7% of the balls put in play against the Reds were on the ground is a problem. One that doesn’t have a clear solution without an influx of pitching that focuses on inducing ground balls. 

Derek Johnson may also institute a change in philosophy with guys like Hunter Greene (31.8% career ground ball rate) and Andrew Abbott (28.6%).

It’s a true forest for the trees situation. Although, in this case, the big picture necessitates that the trees improve. If the Reds don't keep the ball on the ground at a better rate next season, health may not be the only thing holding back the pitching.

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