The Dietz: Analyzing Key 2021 NFL Draft position groups
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Welcome, everybody! This is extremely rare territory, as you’re about to get “The Dietz.”
This is my new article series here on FanNation, Powered By Sports Illustrated, where every week or so we will examine some of the top draft stories going around on the interwebs. Whether it’s a controversial take, top headline, or anything that brings notable contention to the NFL Draft community, you can be assured that this will be the spot to find my take on it.
In our first edition, we examine the four positional groups that have the most wide-ranging variance amongst the media scouting community. Like any other draft, some positions are much deeper than others, while some have created split differences upon who is the consensus. So without any further ado, let me present to you, ‘The Dietz,’ Volume One edition!
THE CREAM OF THE CROP
With the COVID-19 pandemic still in full swing, it has affected everyone’s daily lives. It’s not hyperbolic to say we live in a completely new world and we as a society have learned to change how we operate. From work to school, from politics to sports, it is completely different than what life was like just a year ago. There are some exceptions, however. For example, Trevor Lawrence is the best quarterback prospect that we have seen since Andrew Luck in 2012 and possibly even John Elway in 1984. If you were to take Lawrence out of the equation, it’s not as if Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields isn’t a top-pick contender in his own right. As of today, the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets are projected to select first and second overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, respectively. Barring unfortunate injury, these two future stars have the chance to be legitimate superstars very early in their own right. The good news for the remaining thirty NFL teams, there isn’t a major drop off in starting-caliber quarterbacks.
Let’s start with arguably the biggest riser in this class, BYU’s Zach Wilson. A true junior, Wilson’s play this season has catapulted him from an intriguing late-rounder to a potential top-five selection. His excellent arm strength, downfield accuracy and underrated athleticism have caught the eyes of many evaluators. There is also North Dakota State dual-threat Trey Lance, who has captivated evaluators with his combination of accuracy and athleticism, despite only playing one game this season due to the FCS. Meanwhile Alabama gunslinger Mac Jones, may be the best deep-ball passer in this class. It was notable that he broke the record for the highest QBR in a single season in 2020 en route to a National Championship with the Crimson Tide.
That is five quarterbacks who are positioned to be first-round selections and possibly, all of whom that could hear their name called within the top 15 overall, which would be absolute insanity. Having watched all of these players, I can say with full certainty that Lawrence is first and Fields is a distant but close second (if that makes any sense). The real debate starts with Lance versus Wilson. These are two players who are very different stylistically but appear to be duking it out for that number three spot. Wilson has the type of playstyle with his underrated athleticism and plus-arm strength that makes me see him excel in a San Francisco-style offense, which emphasizes heavy play-action and Lance looks like another player who would excel in a West Coast scheme but favors more intermediate throws over the middle of the field. It’s very close but I still slightly lean Trey Lance for the sole purpose of his dual-threat ability, which could be the ultimate game-changer for whatever team drafts him. That also goes with the understanding that many NFL teams likely have Wilson higher than Lance and the former could go as early as second overall. Mac Jones rounds out the top-five and although he is perceived as having a “lower-ceiling”, I believe he can be a Kirk Cousins-type quarterback at the next level.
The draft process is far from over, but this is one positional group where my current rankings feel as if they are nearly set in stone.
THE NEW NORMAL FOR WIDE RECEIVERS
With the way these last few seasons have gone, it will be a sight to see when a year comes by and the wide receiver class won’t be completely bombarded with Pro Bowl-level talent and guess what? The class of 2021 is not the year. Similar to the quarterbacks, there is a legitimate possibility that we see five, maybe even six wide receivers go in the first round this coming April.
Let’s begin with Ja’Marr Chase, who despite opting out of the 2020 season, displays all of the requisite traits teams look for in a number-one wide out. He’s fast, nimble, possesses strong hands, demonstrates excellent route running - he reminds me a ton of Chris Godwin. As for the Crimson Tide, there isn’t just one future star, but two! Let’s begin with the 2020 Heisman Trophy winner Devonta Smith, who despite some concerns from scouts about his playing weight at the next level (currently listed at 175 pounds), has been a production machine and possesses arguably the most reliable pair of mitts in this receiver class. His teammate Jaylen Waddle, who broke his ankle in October, has special speed and ball-tracking ability. He averaged nearly 140 yards per game before he went down. Despite Minnesota fluttering back to mediocrity in 2020, Rashod Bateman is a prototypical ‘X’ with improving route running and contested-catch savviness. Arguably the biggest riser this season has been Florida receiver Kadarius Toney, whose route running and savviness could lead you to believe his ankles are elastic. Who could forget Rondale Moore out of Purdue, whose skillset is the type that will surely have teams salivating with his 4.3-speed and run after catch skills.
These are only five guys who I listed, but there are several more who can sneak into the first round. As of today, I still have Chase as my WR1. He simply showed too much with Joe Burrow in 2019 to have me think he won’t be anything less than a superstar. The rest of the rankings are very close after that but I still have Waddle number two. The way he was playing before the unfortunate injury, he very well could’ve surpassed Chase. Just from my tape study, Bateman is still number three with his high-floor skillset but Devonta Smith isn’t far behind at all. Toney and Moore round out these blue-chippers but a good pre-draft process could see them fly up boards.
All of these rankings I should note are obviously subject to change but either way, I am entranced with these five guys.
NECESSARY PROTECTION
Many football fans are of the belief (myself included) that you cannot build a formidable roster without having good football players in the trenches, specifically the offensive line. If you can’t protect your quarterback, there will always be a limitation on your team. Luckily, the offensive tackle class for 2021 doesn’t just look good, it is as deep as can be. Now, we all know Penei Sewell of Oregon is the number one prospect in this class. I understand some may have questions about his length and him taking a year off from football but let’s be real here, he’s what many would call a “generational talent” and he’ll remain in this top spot until draft night. The list of players after him though…well, I hope you’re all ready.
Virginia Tech offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw has been a massive riser this year, as his play at the left tackle spot for the Hokies has propelled him into the top-ten conversation. Texas blindside protector Samuel Cosmi may need to put on some weight but he’s been a rock for that team the past few seasons. Northwestern prospect Rashawn Slater, another opt-out, displays the lateral agility and technique that raises his ceiling sky-high. Oozing with potential is Jalen Mayfield, who has improved every season at right tackle for the Michigan Wolverines and his athletic profile as a former basketball player has some believing he can be a similar player to Jedrick Wills. After a poor 2019 season, Liam Eichenberg out of Notre Dame has been arguably the best run-blocking left tackle in the nation. We also can’t forget about Alex Leatherwood, whose mauling, physical skill-set for Alabama gives him a ton of versatility in many offensive schemes. A polarizing prospect is Walker Little out of Stanford, whose size and technique are what catches NFL scouts’ attention. There’s also small school prospect Dillon Radunz, who is very raw but did a phenomenal job allowing Trey Lance to have a historic season for North Dakota State in 2019. All that and we have yet to mention Jackson Carman (Clemson), Spencer Brown (Northern Iowa), Teven Jenkins (Oklahoma State), Alaric Jackson (Iowa) and Cole Van Lanen (Wisconsin)
Now that I’m out of breath, you can see why it’s a great year to need offensive line help. Many teams will be looking to upgrade their lines this season and while most of the picks will come down to preference and scheme fit, here are my current top-ten rankings for the offensive line position:
- Sewell
- Darrisaw
- Cosmi
- Mayfield
- Slater
- Jenkins
- Eichenberg
- Radunz
- Little
- Brown
A TRULY WIDE OPEN PASS RUSHER CLASS
The talk of the town during the summer was that this edge-class was lacking in star talent. There was no Myles Garrett or Chase Young level prospect for 2021 but that doesn’t mean there aren’t a good amount of pass-rushers in this class with star potential. Miami defensive end Gregory Rousseau was the near-consensus top-prospect at the position during the summer but following his opt-out for the 2020 campaign, the claim for the number one edge rusher is still up for stakes.
Arguably the biggest riser this year has been Michigan defensive end Kwity Paye, who has been a force to be reckoned with for the Wolverines. If he runs sub-4.6 in the forty, he’s going to go higher than most expect. Joseph Ossai out of Texas is a very raw pass-rusher but he’s excelled this year at the team’s “VIPER” position. He’s another great athlete with insanely good get-off and improving technique. Jaelan Phillips has taken over most of Rousseau’s snaps this year for Miami and the former No.1 overall recruit in 2017 has displayed all of the talents that have yet to materialize early in his college career. Last but not least, Jayson Oweh out of Penn State is another raw, yet improving pass-rusher who some project will obliterate at the pre-draft process.
In my opinion, these five guys all have a shot at being the first edge-defender taken in the 2021 NFL Draft. Similar to Ja’Marr Chase, I like to give Rousseau the benefit of the doubt, as he was my top-rated edge-defender going into the season but Kwity Paye and Jaelan Phillips’ play this year has him right on his tail. Needless to say, this will be fun seeing who is eventually the first player taken at one of the game’s most valuable positions.
Hopefully you enjoyed my first column and appreciate any feedback. Enjoy the Super Bowl and be sure to check back soon for the next edition of, “The Dietz.”
