One Key Statistic May Show Derrick Henry's Decline

Tennessee Titans star running back Derrick Henry continues to be one of the best players in the NFL, but one key statistic could be showing us how Henry is on the decline.

NASHVILLE — The Tennessee Titans' entire offensive identity is built around star running back Derrick Henry. For good reason, Henry has been one of the best players in the NFL for half of a decade. However, a recent statistic shows that even Henry may be declining as the years go by.

A recent article from Bill Barnwell of ESPN ranked the offensive supporting casts in the NFL. The Titans came in near the bottom, which is no surprise, but what was a bit of a surprise was a statistic used to quantify Henry's decline over the past two seasons.

That statistic is Rush Yards Over Expected(RYOE). What does this mean though? Think of it this way, based on historical data taking into account situational factors, each play has an amount of yards that are expected to be gained. RYOE measures how many yards were gained that exceed what was expected.

Think of "expected" as the bare minimum that should be gained by an average player. The best players can make the best of situations to gain more than the expected outcome. This is something Henry did at an incredible rate during the 2019 and 2020 season. 

"That would be fine, maybe, if the Titans had prime Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Corey Davis as their big three. We're not there. Henry stayed healthy last season but continued to shed efficiency; after generating 685 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) between 2019 and 2020, he has mustered only a combined 114 RYOE over the past two seasons. He also fumbled six times. Henry set career-highs as a receiver, which helps his case, but it's more likely 2023 reveals the good player from 2021 and 2022 as opposed to the Offensive Player of the Year candidate from the prior two campaigns, just given his career path, workload and age (29)."

As you can see from the stats Barnwell provided, Henry had 653 yards over the expectation in 2019 and 2020 combined. His penchant for breaking the "big one" certainly is a key factor in that performance. That is reflected in his yards-per-carry numbers as well.

In 2019, Henry ran for 5.1 yards per carry and in 2020, Henry ran for 5.4 yards per carry. Elite numbers. However, in 2021 and 2022, Henry took a major dip backwards. Henry finished with 4.3 and then 4.4 yards per carry in those seasons, respectively. 

Henry went for over 1,500 yards in 2022 while also setting career highs in receptions and receiving yards and was still a top fantasy running back according to the experts at Fanduel. No one is saying Henry isn't still a very good player and one of the top backs in the NFL. What is becoming obvious though, is that Henry is regressing in some way.

As you can see from the YPC and RYOE, Henry is less efficient, breaking through tackles less and breaking the "big one" at a far lower rate. Henry's longest run in 2022 was 56 yards. The lowest of his career since his rookie season.

Again, Henry is still a good player and the Titans would be wise to continue to feature him, but some realities have to be accepted and the Titans would also be wise to make sure they aren't overly-reliant on Henry going forward as his inevitable decline continues.

His decline also has a lot to with the experts not expecting much from the Titans this year. Their over/under number for wins is only 7.5 according to Fanduel.

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