Interesting Titans Data Shows Former OC Todd Downing's Ineptitude, but Should Create Excitement for Tim Kelly

The Tennessee Titans offense appeared to be it's own worst enemy in 2022 due to the poor planning and play calling of Todd Downing. New data released by Warren Sharp shows just how true that was, but should excite Titans' fan for what Tim Kelly could bring in 2023.

NASHVILLE — When discussing the Tennessee Titans offense and the improvements we could see in 2023, much of the conversation is about the additions on the offensive line and the questionable wide receivers. It is possible though that Tim Kelly taking over as offensive coordinator is actually the most important change to the offense.

The Titans fired former offensive coordinator Todd Downing after the 2022 season finished. It was a bad ending, too, losing their last seven games to finish 7-10. You didn't need to be an expert to see that Downing was not equipped for the job he was doing. Nothing drives that point home like some recent data released by Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis.

on 1st downs Tennessee had the #2 highest run rate

despite Ds stacking the box at the #4 highest rate

unsurprisingly the runs ranked #4 worst in efficiency

but nothing stopped them from running into loaded boxes

not even the fact that 1st down passes ranked #3 in efficiency

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 21, 2023

As shown in the tweet above, the Titans had the most non-sensical plan in the NFL on first downs and they never figured out that they needed to change it. They ran the ball at the second-highest rate in the NFL on first downs despite seeing eight men in the box the fourth-most often and having the fourth-worst efficiency numbers on first-down runs.

Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity. However, the Titans look even more incompetent when you look at their efficiency throwing the ball on first down. As shown, the Titans were the third-most efficient team in the NFL when throwing on first downs. 

The Titans were awful at running on first down, great at throwing it on first down, so naturally they just ran the ball all the time. It is truly laughable and the crazy part is that any casual Titans fan who watched the games could tell you this was an issue, even without the supporting data.

their first down runs did almost nothing but force them into third downs

highest rate of being forced into 3rd down after a first down run in the NFL

but they repeated it, over and over and over

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 21, 2023

So, to recap, the Titans ran the ball at one of the highest rates in the league on first down, into some of the most disadvantageous situations with some of the least success all while they were one of the best teams in the NFL at throwing it in those same situations. True ineptitude.

Luckily for Titans fans though, the man responsible is now fired. Even more lucky for Titans fans though, the man responsible for the early-down passing success is now in charge of the offense. Maybe it would be irresponsible to give Kelly all the credit, but Mike Vrabel did mention early-down passing as one of Kelly's primary duties in 2022.

So, while these stats has to be mind-numbing for Titans fans to see, they can take solace in the fact that we should see significant change in 2023. If we don't, then it isn't on the offensive coordinators anymore. 

At that point, we know this is a directive coming from Mike Vrabel and he will have some questions to answer as to whether he is the man that can lead this team to a championship with such an archaic view of offense. But that is a conversation for another time.

With Kelly at the helm, improvements on the offensive line and better health for Henry and veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the Titans still hope to contend in the soft AFC South. 

According to Fanduel, Jacksonville is still the favorite to win the division at minus-160, but the Titans are second at plus-360 and a pair of wins against their rival would swing that close race quickly.

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