NFL Player Props: Cooper Kupp Receptions, Receiving Yards and Touchdowns Bets Breakdown

Even if the Rams receiver doesn’t win another ‘triple crown,’ his prop bets are within reach.

Rams receiver Cooper Kupp logged an historic season in 2021, with 1,947 receiving yards, 145 receptions and 16 receiving touchdowns – leading the league in each of the three categories. Those numbers earned him the Offensive Player of the Year award with a resounding 70% of the vote, despite Jonathan Taylor’s incredible sophomore breakout.

RB Props: Rushing Yds | Rushing TD | Taylor | CMC | Ekeler | Harris
QB Props: Passing Yards | Passing TD | Brady | Herbert | Allen
WR Props: Receiving Yards | Receiving TD | Jefferson | Adams | Hill

Can Kupp repeat the magic?

Let’s take a look at where the futures market stands for the dominant Rams wide receiver.

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Jason Behnken/AP

Receiving Yards: 1,300.5
Over (-115) | Under (-115)

Kupp’s 1,947 receiving yards in 2021 was 786 more yards than his previous best season (1,161 yards in 2019). In his five seasons in the league, Kupp has eclipsed 1,000 yards twice. He’s seen no fewer than 129 targets since 2019, but the biggest difference is, of course, Matt Stafford. The Rams saw their passing offense increase by more than 600 yards between 2020 and 2021 with the new QB. All of those yards -- and then some -- appear to have gone the way of Kupp.

There’s no question Kupp is the favorite target for Stafford. Even with Stafford’s bum elbow and the addition of Allen Robinson, Kupp should remain elite. Defenses will have had more time to try to plan how to stop him, and we should allow for some regression, but in the end I see him getting to 1,301 yards, barring injury.

Here’s another way to look at it. In 2021, Kupp averaged 13.4 yards per reception. That’s a massive number, so let’s assume he regresses to 12 yards per reception (he averaged 12.4 per reception in 2019 with Jared Goff at QB). Vegas has his catch prop at 111.5. So, for sake of argument, let’s say he goes under and reaches only 110 catches. At 12 yards per catch, 110 grabs would equal … 1,320 yards.

Five receivers and a tight end (Mark Andrews) finished with 1,300-plus yards last year, and I’m willing to bet Kupp can do it again this year.

BET: Over 1,300.5 receiving yards

Receiving Touchdowns : 11.5
Over (-115) | Under (-115)

In 2020, with Goff under center, the Rams passed for 20 touchdowns.

In 2021, with Stafford, they passed for 41.

Kupp caught 16 of those. More than half (53.5%) of the Rams’ targets inside the 20-yard line were directed to Kupp. That’s the third-highest mark in the league.

If it ain’t broke…

BET: Over 11.5 TDs (-115)

Catches : 111.5
Over (-115)| Under (-115)

And finally, Kupp’s receptions had a meteoric increase from 2020 (92 catches) to 2021 (145 catches). That’s bonkers.

The 111.5 total feels like a really smart number. Robinson should be taking away a few targets, and running back Cam Akers should get in on the passing game, too.

We can probably still hit the over on our reception prop even if the under hits on the catches. That being said, only two players finished with more than 111 receptions in 2021: Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams. I’m going to take the under here, but I think it’s close.

BET: Under 111.5 receptions (-115)