2022 NFL Regular-Season Receiving Yards Leader Betting Breakdown

Cooper Kupp is the favorite at SI Sportsbook to lead the league in receiving yards once again, but Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase both loom large.

Cooper Kupp fell just short of breaking the all-time record for receiving yards in a season in 2021.

Calvin Johnson’s record of 1,964 receiving yards still stands, though Kupp’s 1,947 receiving yards led all players by more than 300 en route to his triple crown campaign. A bump in production was expected for Kupp with a new quarterback in Los Angeles, and his connection with Matthew Stafford turned him into the league’s top receiver.

Receiver Props: Receiving TD | Kupp | Jefferson | Adams | Hill

Kupp enters 2022 as the favorite to repeat as the NFL-leader in that regard. Johnson was the last player to lead the league in receiving yards in back-to-back seasons (2011-2012) when Stafford was also slinging him the ball in Detroit.

Quarterback Props: Passing Yards | Passing TD | Brady | Herbert | Allen

Justin Jefferson (+800) has the second-best odds at SI Sportsbook behind Kupp and then there’s Ja’Marr Chase (+1100). Rounding out the top five are Davante Adams and Travis Kelce, who are tied for the fourth-best odds (+1200).

Running Back Props: Rushing Yds | Rushing TD | Taylor | CMC | Ekeler | Harris

It’s taken at least 1,500 yards to top all players each of the last five seasons, a mark that three players broke last year.

Will one of the top contenders take the receiving yards title? Or will a player with longer odds come out of nowhere like Kupp did last season?

Bet on the NFL at SI Sportsbook

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

2022 Regular-Season Receiving Yards Leader

Cooper Kupp +700
Justin Jefferson +800
Ja’Marr Chase +1100
Davante Adams +1200
Travis Kelce +1200
Ceedee Lamb +1400
Stefon Diggs +1400
Deebo Samuel +1600
Tyreek Hill +1600
Mike Evans +2000
AJ Brown +2200
Diontae Johnson +2500
DJ Moore +2500
Jerry Jeudy +2500
Mark Andrews +2500
Marquise Brown +2500
DK Metcalf +2800
Amari Cooper +3300
Hunter Renfrow +3300
Keenan Allen +3300
Michael Thomas +3300
Mike Williams +3300
Tee Higgins +3300
Christian Kirk +4000
Kyle Pitts +4000
Terry McLaurin +4000
Tyler Lockett +4000
Darnell Mooney +4500
Allen Robinson +5000
Courtland Sutton +5000
Gabriel Davis +5000
JuJu Smith-Schuster +5000
Michael Pittman Jr +5000
Jaylen Waddle +6000
Brandin Cooks +6600

Contenders: Kupp Positioned to Repeat as Leading Receiver

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams (+700)

Kupp more than doubled his receiving yards year over year with a sizable bump in targets, a corresponding jump in receptions and an increase from a career-low 10.6 yards per catch to 13.4. Playing with the best quarterback of his career, Kupp paced the NFL in targets (191) while setting a career-high in average depth of target (8.6).

Stafford’s top option saw 102 more targets than his next closest teammate. Robert Woods went down with a season-ending injury in Week 9 and Kupp went on to record a league-high 31.7% target share on the offense that hyper-targets its receivers more than any other team. That’s not to say Kupp wasn’t already on his way to an all-time season—he already had five 100-yard games before Woods suffered his injury.

He heads into 2022 armed with an extension and now there’s no debate that he’s the top target in this high-powered offense. There are some concerns about his ability to repeat as the league’s leading receiver, though.

Stafford is still dealing with lingering elbow soreness, though he will be ready to go for Week 1. Also, the Rams’ offseason addition, Allen Robinson, will easily command 100-plus targets. He saw 150 or more in each full season of his career.

The good news for Kupp is he has ample room for regression and can still pace the league. Jefferson finished a distant second last season and—if healthy—there’s room for Stafford to air the ball out even more often in his second year with Sean McVay.

Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (+800)

If anyone can help Jefferson turn in a Kupp-esque season, it’s former Rams offensive coordinator turned Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell.

Jefferson said earlier this offseason on The Ringer NFL Show: “Just seeing what Cooper Kupp did last year, that gives me so much hope, gives me so much excitement to see what I can do in the same position that he was.”

The former LSU star came closer to Kupp’s near-record breaking season than any other player in just his second season. Jefferson finished fourth in targets (167) and receptions (108) and his impressive mark of 15 yards per catch powered him to the second-most receiving yards in football (1,616). He tallied 10 receiving touchdowns.

Jefferson finished third in the NFL in target share (28.9%), and the expectation is there will be even more passes to go around this year. Kirk Cousins tossed 561 passes last season (10th-most) across 16 games. Getting into the 600s in a pass-heavier offense will allow for even more targets to be funneled to his unquestioned top target.

If Jefferson finishes in the 1,600-yard range once again, that mark would have led the NFL in 2020, 2017 and 2016 (a 17th game was added to the schedule in 2021). Jefferson makes more plays down the field than his other high-volume counterparts—he led all players in air yards share and yards before catch. The potential is there for Jefferson to break through after consecutive top-five seasons to start his career.

Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals (+1100)

It turns out Chase has no issues catching an NFL football after all. He won Offensive Rookie of the Year after hauling in 81 receptions for 1,455 yards, the fourth-most in the league. Chase, catching passes from his college quarterback, Joe Burrow, instantly became a dominant deep threat. His 18.2 yards per catch led all qualified receivers.

Much of Chase’s production was concentrated to a handful of games, but oh what games they were. He broke 200 yards twice, but aside from those blowup games, Chase broke 100 yards just three other times. He was the most-targeted Bengal a season ago, though Tee Higgins’s target share (24.7%) was higher than his (23.7%).

The connection between Burrow and Chase was apparent from their first game together at the pro level when they linked up five times for 101 yards and a score. If Burrow’s passing frequency increases this season, Chase will be the primary beneficiary. My colleague Shawn Childs has Chase finishing as the WR1 in his fantasy football projections and accumulating a league-high 1,628 yards.

Burrow threw the 15th-most passes in the NFL and Chase tied for the 19th-most targets. If Burrow creeps into the top 10 in pass attempts and Chase approaches the 150-target threshold, a 1500-plus yard season is in the cards for the third-year pro given the duo’s propensity to rip off big plays.

Mykal McEldowney/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

Sleepers: Williams, Pittman Could Hold Even Larger Roles

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers (+3300)

Mike Williams turned in the best season of his career in 2021 and the Chargers rewarded him accordingly. The 6’4” target hauled in 76 of 129 targets for 1,146 yards—all career-highs. Keenan Allen is still the Chargers’ No. 1 option, but Williams is the downfield threat who complements Justin Herbert’s cannon arm.

He is an efficient receiver, though not a volume player. Williams only saw double-digit targets in four games last season and averaged 114.5 yards in those contests. Perhaps Williams could close the gap on Allen as Herbert’s favorite target this year. If anything, the investment the team made in him this offseason would make one think he’ll be more consistently involved than he was a year ago.

Williams has only broken 1,000 yards twice, a far cry from the range that is necessary to finish among the league’s top pass catchers. It will take a return to form in his yards per catch (and average depth of target) to his previous numbers to approach the upper echelon. Or, of course, more of Herbert’s high-value targets coming his way. Some combination of the two could propel Williams to his best season yet.

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (+5000)

Matt Ryan was the quarterback responsible for Julio Jones leading the NFL in receiving yards in 2015 and again in 2018. The 2021 version of Ryan wasn’t up for anything close to that in Atlanta, but in Indianapolis, with a better team around him and a true No. 1 receiver to target, he could be. That’s where Pittman comes in.

The upgrade from Carson Wentz (26th in on-target percentage) to Ryan (ninth) has already made Pittman an enticing fantasy football prospect. The third-year receiver managed to break 1,000 yards for the first time last season with Wentz under center and the Colts running the ball at one of the highest rates in the league.

Pittman tied for the 16th-most targets in the league a season ago. He should haul in a higher percentage of the targets coming his way this year in an offense that will be more trusting in its quarterback. A blowup season is certainly within reason.

Best Bet: Justin Jefferson (+800)
Value Bet: Mike Williams (+5000)

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