Minnesota Vikings Over/Under Wins Total Betting Breakdown

It’s a new era for the Vikings with head coach Kevin O’Connell and their over/under at SI Sportsbook is 9.5 wins.

Former head coach Mike Zimmer is out and new head coach Kevin O’Connell is in, but this Vikings team remains largely unchanged. Will O’Connell and new offensive coordinator Wes Phillips take the team to the next level?

AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | JAX | Division Odds
NFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TB | NO | ATL | CAR | Division Odds
AFC West Over/Under Wins Total: KC | LV | LAC | DEN | Division Odds
NFC West Over/Under Wins Total: LAR | ARZ | SF | SEA | Division Odds
NFC North Over/Under Wins Total: GB | CHI | DET | Division Odds

Las Vegas is clearly high on the Vikings this year, setting their win total at 9.5 despite finishing below .500 in back-to-back seasons (2021 - 8-9; 2020 - 7-9).

Let’s break it down.

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Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota Vikings Over/Under: 9.5 - O (+100) | U (-133)

2021-2022 record: 8-9; Second NFC North; Missed playoffs
NFC North future odds: +275 (Second)
NFC future odds: +1800 (Ninth)
Super Bowl future odds: +3500 (Tied-17th)

Key additions: HC Kevin O’Connell, LB Za’Darius Smith, LB Jordan Hicks
Key losses: TE Tyler Conklin, LB Anthony Barr, S Xavier Woods

Inside The Vikings offseason grade: B-

The big story of the Vikings’ offseason was a full regime change. After two consecutive losing seasons, longtime GM Rick Spielman and head coach Mike Zimmer were replaced by younger leaders in Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell. These moves were all about changing the Vikings’ culture with an influx of collaboration, analytics and a more modern approach. Interestingly, that didn’t lead to a very different offseason from a roster-building perspective. The Vikings declined to hit the reset button, instead choosing to gear up for what they believe will be a season of playoff contention. They extended Kirk Cousins again, made a free agency splash by signing Smith, and added or retained several other veterans at positions of need. Clearly, they believe this roster is ready to win at a high level right now. O’Connell brought Wes Phillips with him from the Rams to be his offensive coordinator and hired respected veteran coach Ed Donatell to be his DC. Cine and Booth Jr. should help revamp the secondary as rookies.—Will Ragatz

SCHEDULE

Week 1: Packers
Week 2: At Eagles
Week 3: Lions
Week 4: At Saints
Week 5: Bears
Week 6: At Dolphins
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: Cardinals
Week 9: At Commanders
Week 10: At Bills
Week 11: Cowboys
Week 12: Patriots
Week 13: Jets
Week 14: At Lions
Week 15: Colts
Week 16: Giants
Week 17: At Packers
Week 18: At Bears

Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins had another underrated season in 2021, passing for 4,221 yards and 33 touchdowns in a run-heavy offense and finishing as PFF’s sixth-highest-graded quarterback. Will he benefit from having a new head coach that throws aggressively on early downs? Matthew Stafford certainly took a step forward in this offensive scheme last season, and Cousins arguably has just as good playmakers as Stafford in wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

Jefferson continues to smash records, logging the most receiving yards (3,016) in a player’s first two seasons in NFL history. Jefferson recorded 108 catches and 1,616 receiving yards in 2021, and the 23-year-old still has the potential to improve.

Quarterback Props Series: Passing Yards | Passing TD | Brady | Herbert | Allen

Thielen may be getting older but he should not be dismissed. Thielen could continue to see plenty of targets as defenses will be worrying about stopping Jefferson. Thielen’s 70.5% catch rate was the best of Minnesota’s receivers, and his ten touchdowns tied Jefferson - with Thielen hitting that mark in only 13 games.

Dalvin Cook remains a threat on the ground, even if he misses time due to injury, and Alexander Mattison has proven to be a more than capable backup.

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The Minnesota offense looks like it can get the job done, but can the defense keep up? Former Packer Za’Darius Smith will certainly be a major factor. PFF has Minnesota’s defensive line ranked as the 12th-best coming into the season - ahead of the Bills and behind the Colts. It finished last year ranked 21st.

If the defense and the offense can fire at the same time, the Vikings certainly look like a contender. But can they? Let’s check in on the matchups.

Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Beginning with the NFC North, the Vikings will face each of the Packers, Bears and Lions twice. I predict the Vikings will split with the Packers. Minnesota wins the season opener at home while Aaron Rodgers and crew are likely off to a slow start without Davante Adams, and by the end of the season the Packers will be able to easily beat the Vikings at the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field in Week 17.

The Vikings could easily sweep the Bears and the Lions this year, but I’ll give them just three of those game too. My total is at four right now.

Running Back Props Series: Rushing Yards | Rushing TD | Jonathan Taylor | Christian McCaffrey | Austin Ekeler | Najee Harris

Other NFC matchups include road games versus the Eagles, Saints and Commanders. The Vikings should defeat the Commanders, while the Eagles and Saints are more difficult road games. I’ll give them one more here to bring the total to five.

Continuing in the NFC, the Vikings host the Cardinals, Cowboys and Giants.

I’ll give them the Giants and Cowboys games to bring the total to seven.

This year’s AFC matchups include the Dolphins, Bills, Patriots, Jets and Colts. The Vikings should have no problem defeating the Jets and second-year quarterback Zach Wilson. Tua and the Dolphins, Josh Allen and the Bills and Matt Ryan and the Colts will be tougher competition, but I will give them one of the three and my total is at nine.

WR Props: Receiving Yds | Receiving TD | Kupp | Jefferson | Adams | Hill

As much as I am excited about the Vikings for my fantasy team, I am less optimistic about their win total. Yes, the NFC North looks like an easy division this year, but the Lions could be sneaky and the rest of the schedule certainly isn’t a cake walk.

Even though it’s tough to turn down the plus-money, I’d rather bet on the individual players than bet on the over on the wins total.

BET: Under 9.5 wins (-133)

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