Detroit Lions Over/Under Wins Total Betting Breakdown

The Lions hope for progress in Dan Campbell’s second season and their over/under wins total at SI Sportsbook is 6.5 wins.

Frankie Taddeo | Aug 25, 2022

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Detroit Lions

Thanks to HBO’s documentary series Hard Knocks, liability on Lions futures markets continues to mount as the season gets closer.

Detroit, who hasn’t made the playoffs since 2106, has endured four consecutive losing seasons and posted a disappointing 26-53-2 record since its last postseason berth.

AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | JAX | Division Odds
NFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TB | NO | ATL | CAR | Division Odds
AFC West Over/Under Wins Total: KC | LV | LAC | DEN | Division Odds
NFC West Over/Under Wins Total: LAR | ARZ | SF | SEA | Division Odds
NFC North Over/Under Wins Total: GB | MIN | CHI | Division Odds

Bettors are bullish on head coach Dan Campbell turning things around after only winning three games last season. The club is hoping that veteran Jared Goff, who ranked in the bottom half of all quarterbacks in passing yards (3,245), can return to the form he showed back in 2018 with the Rams. To help him succeed. the club added wideouts DJ Chark (free agency) and Jameson Williams (draft) to a core already consisting of running back D'Andre Swift and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown.

SI Sportsbook has the Lions (+900) well behind the Packers (-200) and Vikings (+275) in the NFC North futures market.

Detroit will need to earn victories on the road if it is to surpass its regular-season win total projection of 6.5 games. Last season, Detroit went 0-8-1 away from Ford Field and is a disappointing 9-23-1 in road games spanning the last four seasons.

Bet on the NFL at SI Sportsbook

Detroit Lions Over/Under: 6.5 - O (-125) | U (-110)

2021-2022 record: 3-13-1; Fourth NFC North; Missed Playoffs
NFC North future odds: +900 (Third)
NFC future odds: +5000 (Tied-13th)
Super Bowl future odds: +8000 (Tied-25th)

Key additions: WR DJ Chark, S DeShon Elliott, CB Mike Hughes
Key losses: DE Trey Flowers, LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, DT Nick Williams
Key rookies: DE Aidan Hutchinson, WR Jameson Williams

All Lions Grade: C+

In free agency, the Lions decided to bring back a significant number of their own free agents, leaving many to wonder why a team that only won three games would still want a plethora of the same players back. The team did address one of its biggest weaknesses from last year at wide receiver, drafting Williams in the first round and signing Chark. The defense still has question marks at linebacker, but drafting Hutchinson should start the process of improving the defensive line.—John Maakaron

2022 Detroit Lions Schedule

Week 1: Eagles
Week 2: Commanders
Week 3: At Vikings
Week 4: Seahawks
Week 5: At Patriots
Week 6: BYE
Week 7: At Cowboys
Week 8: Dolphins
Week 9: Packers
Week 10: At Bears
Week 11: At Giants
Week 12: Bills +8.5 (Thanksgiving)
Week 13: Jaguars
Week 14: Vikings
Week 15: At Jets
Week 16: At Panthers
Week 17: Bears
Week 18: At Packers

Detroit kicks off the season as four-point home underdogs against the Eagles, but Vegas sources have indicated this line could drop as the hype around Hard Knocks will be center stage in bettors’ minds who grab the points with the home underdog.

After hosting Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown, the Lions will welcome Carson Wentz and the Commanders to Ford Field as one-point home underdogs.

QB Props: Passing Yds | Passing TD | Brady | Herbert | Allen

Detroit heads on the road for the first time in Week 3 to face Justin Jefferson and the Vikings as 6.5-point road ‘dogs. The Lions beat Minnesota, 29-27, in Week 13 last season as seven-point underdogs. The victory snapped an eight-game losing streak to their NFC North rival. Nevertheless, it is hard to envision the Lions earning their second win in the last 10 meetings when they head to Minneapolis.

The Lions return home in Week 4 for their most favorable matchup of the opening month hosting the Seahawks as one-point favorites. Bettors find Detroit favored for the first time against the team with the lowest betting season wins total projection.

Detroit next travels to Foxboro in Week 5 to face Mac Jones and the Patriots as a 6.5-point road underdog.

Coming out of the bye, the Lions will spend three of the next five weeks on the road.

Goff will lead Detroit into a Week 7 battle against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, who have won nine of the last 11 meeting since 2003 and four straight.

Over the next two weeks, the Lions welcome the Dolphins and Packers to Motown. The showdown with the Dolphins finds a powerful offense now featuring wide receiver Tyreek Hill. The massive edge on that side of the ball results in oddsmakers listing Miami as three-point road favorites. In Week 9, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who are 5-1 in the last six meetings with Detroit, are healthy six-point road favorites.

Prior to hosting the Bills on Thanksgiving as 8.5-point home underdogs, the Lions will encounter road tilts with the Bears and Giants. The matchup with Chicago may not be as easy as the 1.5-point spread may indicate, as the Lions have dropped four straight at Soldier Field, including seven of the last eight overall against their NFC North rival.

Three of the final four games of the season consist of road showdowns against the Jets, Panthers and Packers. Look-ahead lines indicate the games against New York (Week 15) and Carolina (Week 16) could potentially result in victories, while the season finale against the Packers finds a likely loss with an assigned 9.5-point spread.

Detroit is only favored in just two of 17 games but oddsmakers have 10 of those contests listed with spreads of three points or less.

The potential of Swift and St. Brown becoming top-end stars has bettors believing the Lions will enjoy its first winning season since 2017. However, the popularity of seeing the Lions coaches and players up close and personal has led to far too many investing in over 6.5 wins. When the public is massively backing the success of a team, it’s best to align yourself with the needs of sportsbooks.

The Lions will be improved this season, but expecting a team that has only won 11 games over the last three seasons combined appears simply too much to ask.

BET: Under 6.5 (-110) regular-season wins

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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Published Aug 25, 2022

FRANKIE TADDEO

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frankie primarily performs as Sports Illustrated's Senior Betting Analyst providing his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene.