2022 NFL Coach of the Year Betting Breakdown

The NFL Coach of the Year race has four co-favorites with +1400 odds at SI Sportsbook. Brandon Staley and three first-year coaches top the list.

Kyle Wood | Aug 25, 2022

The NFL Coach of the Year field is crowded at the top.

There are four co-favorites for the award and five more contenders who are tied for the second-best odds at SI Sportsbook. Some are first-year head coaches, others are on their second team and a few are simply running it back in the same scenario.

So, who does this award generally go to anyway?

The coach of the team with the most wins? Sometimes.

The team that outperformed expectations the most? Sort of.

The first-year coach who authored a quick turnaround? Also yes.

The American Football Database says the award is presented to the “coach who has done the most outstanding job of working with the talent he has at his disposal.”

Three of the last five winners were first-year head coaches. Each of those three (Sean McVay in 2017, Matt Nagy in 2018 and Kevin Stefanski in 2020) ended extended playoff droughts in their first season at the helm thanks to sizable win improvements.

The other two recent winners (John Harbaugh in 2019 and Mike Vrabel in 2021) led their teams to the top seed in their conference and built on recent success. Harbaugh’s Ravens went an NFL-best 14-2 three years ago and Vrabel’s Titans went 12-5 and surprisingly earned the top seed in the AFC last season.

So, which coach should you back to bring home the hardware?

Bet on the NFL at SI Sportsbook

2022 Coach of the Year Odds

Brandon Staley +1400
Brian Daboll +1400
Mike McDaniel +1400
Nathaniel Hackett +1400
Doug Pederson +1600
Josh McDaniels +1600
Kevin O’Connell +1600
Kyle Shanahan +1600
Nick Sirianni +1600
Dan Campbell +1800
Frank Reich +2000
Kevin Stefanski +2000
Bill Belichick +2200
John Harbaugh +2200
Matt Lafleur +2200
Mike Vrabel +2200
Sean McDermott +2200
Andy Reid +2500
Dennis Allen +2500
Kliff Kingsbury +2500
Robert Saleh +2500
Sean McVay +2500
Todd Bowles +2500
Zac Taylor +2500
Mike Tomlin +2800
Ron Rivera +2800
Arthur Smith +3300
Matt Eberflus +3300
Matt Rhule +3300
Mike McCarthy +3300
Pete Carroll +3300
Lovie Smith +4000

Contenders: Four Co-Favorites Lead Field

Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers (+1400)

Offseason expectations are high for the Chargers, as they tend to be. This is Brandon Staley’s second season at the helm and the playoffs are the absolute floor for the team tied for the sixth-best Super Bowl odds that hasn’t cracked the postseason since 2018. The path there will be difficult in a division that’s home to four contenders.

Unseating Andy Reid from his six-year reign atop the AFC West would certainly help Staley’s chances. Doing so starts with a massive leap forward on defense. The Chargers ranked 26th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA a season ago after Staley came over from the Rams, where he coordinated a top-five unit on that side of the ball.

AFC West Over/Under Wins Total: KC | LV | LAC | DEN | Division Odds

The Chargers’ offense finished fourth in DVOA in 2021 and it should improve in Justin Herbert’s third season. L.A.’s win total has gone up by two each of the last two years—if that upward climb continues, Staley could be a shoe in for this award.

New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll on the sideline during a preseason game at MetLife Stadium on August 21, 2022, in East Rutherford. — Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK

Brian Daboll, New York Giants (+1400)

The Giants hired the man who channeled Josh Allen’s controlled chaos and helped make him the MVP favorite he is today. New York hasn’t gotten what it hoped out of former sixth overall pick Daniel Jones across three seasons, but perhaps Brian Daboll can repeat what he did in Buffalo with Allen to a lesser extent in the Big Apple.

Even if that’s not the case, there’s plenty of room for improvement for the franchise’s fifth coach in eight years. New York ranked 31st in yards and points each of the last two seasons. That must change under Daboll, who dialed up back-to-back top three scoring offenses in Buffalo. New York has the most expensive receiver room in the NFL, a healthy Saquon Barkley and an improved offensive line to protect Jones.

NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds

Not many people expect much from a team whose win total is set at 6.5 and hasn’t topped that since 2016. Outdo that and Daboll’s praises will be sung yet again.

Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins (+1400)

Mike McDaniel has already endeared himself to fans and media alike. Our Jimmy Traina wrote an article in March titled “Mike McDaniel Should Be Your New Favorite Person in Sports.” Miami’s new coach has a personality and shows it frequently.

AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds

The 39-year-old can also run a wicked offense, which he did in 2021 with the 49ers as Kyle Shanahan’s offensive coordinator and, previously, run game coordinator.

McDaniel’s situation in Miami is different from that of other first-year coaches around the league. The Dolphins won nine games last year and 10 the season before. This isn’t a bottom-tier team, and it’s certainly not a bottom-tier roster—pricey stars like Tyreek Hill and Terron Armstead were brought in this summer to make life easier on quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in his third season. Pieces are in place on both sides of the ball to make a leap, and maybe McDaniel can see to it that it happens.

Nathaniel Hackett, Denver Broncos (+1400)

The Broncos are under new ownership, have a new quarterback and brought in a new coach to pilot the franchise to its first playoff berth since it won the Super Bowl in 2016. Nathaniel Hackett comes over from Green Bay, where he served as offensive coordinator for the last three seasons, to partner with Russell Wilson.

Hackett will attempt to resuscitate a struggling offense that’s cycled through quarterbacks ever since Peyton Manning retired. With Wilson complemented by a group of talented skill position players and a defense with stars at each level, a trip back to the playoffs should certainly be in hand for Denver. It’s just a matter of how high Hackett’s club can climb in the Mile High City.

Sleepers: Reich, Allen Offer Value Among Crowded Candidates

Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts (+2000)

Indianapolis has trotted out a different Week 1 starting quarterback each year of Frank Reich’s coaching tenure and, for the most part, he’s made it work.

AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | JAX | Division Odds

The Colts missed the playoffs in embarrassing fashion a season ago after an ugly Week 18 loss to the Jaguars, though, which spurred another signal-caller shift. The front office traded for Matt Ryan this offseason, who instantly became the franchise’s best option under center since Andrew Luck’s retirement.

The other AFC South teams have each won the division since the Colts last won it in 2014 but that could and should change this season as they are a -125 division favorite. Marginal offensive improvements will propel this team to the playoffs. Anything beyond that, with sustained top-10 defensive play, makes the Colts contenders.

Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints (+2500)

This isn’t Dennis Allen’s first go around with the headset. He coached the Raiders a decade ago and was fired four games into his third season. Allen then spent the last seven seasons dialing up Sean Payton’s defense in New Orleans and now he takes over for the Super Bowl-winning coach.

NFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TB | NO | ATL | CAR | Division Odds

The Saints missed the postseason for the first time in four seasons last year—their first without Drew Brees under center in a decade and a half—though they still finished above .500. Instead of using the draft to initiate a roster reset, the front office bolstered the team around quarterback Jameis Winston.

The Saints also added playmakers on defense to a unit that finished third in DVOA a season ago and infamously has gone undefeated in the regular season against the Tom Brady-era Buccaneers. Allen could very well lead New Orleans back to the top of the division and set his team up for a playoff run in a weak NFC.

Best Bet: Brandon Staley (+1400)
Value Bet: Dennis Allen (+2500)

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Published Aug 25, 2022

KYLE WOOD

Kyle is based in Washington, D.C. He writes the Winners Club newsletter and is a fantasy and betting writer for SI. His work has appeared in the Tampa Bay Times, Orlando Sentinel, Miami Herald and Gainesville Sun.