NFL MVP Betting Breakdown

Josh Allen is the NFL MVP favorite at SI Sportsbook, ahead of Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady and reigning back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers.

Shawn Childs | Sep 2, 2022

The complete offering for NFL MVP at SI Sportsbook is from the quarterback position. The structure eliminates some potential running backs and wide receivers that could have special impact seasons.

Here’s a list of the previous five players to take home the award:

· 2021 – QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
· 2020 – QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
· 2019 – QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
· 2018 – QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
· 2017 – QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots

The last non-quarterback to win the MVP award was running back Adrian Peterson in 2012 (348/2,097/12). LaDainian Tomlinson won in 2006 when he led the league in rushing (348/1,815/28 with 56 catches for 508 yards and three touchdowns). Shaun Alexander (370/1,880/27) was the top player in 2006.

The other five running backs to win the award since 1990 were Thurman Thomas (1991), Barry Sanders (1997 – co-MVP with Brett Favre), Terrel Davis (1998) and Marshall Faulk (2000). The change in the NFL passing game led to quarterbacks winning the last nine awards, with Aaron Rodgers winning the last two awards.

The first box to check to be an MVP contender is winning their division, which ultimately eliminates many players. Here are the top contenders.

MVP TOP CONTENDERS

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (+700)

After a devastating playoffs loss to the Chiefs last season, Allen almost had the target on his back to lead his team to a Super Bowl title.

His skills as a runner/passer create a high workload and top-tier stats and Buffalo is the SI Sportsbook favorite to win the Super Bowl (+600).

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (+1000)

The AFC West has quarterback talent in every corner, inviting high-scoring battles in many weeks. Justin Herbert closed the gap on Patrick Mahomes in 2021, and he has better passing weapons this season.

Herbert’s passing yards and touchdowns will be plentiful, but he can’t win this award without more wins and a deep run in the postseason.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) looks toward the sideline during a joint practice with the Los Angeles Rams, Wednesday, Aug. 24, 2022, at the Paycor Stadium practice fields in Cincinnati. — Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (+1200)

Blessed with two young stud wideouts and an improved offensive line, Joe Burrow looks poised to surge to the top of the league in passing yards.

Burrow helped fantasy teams last year with two explosive games in Week 16 (525/4) and Week 17 (446/4), setting the stage for a push for more than 5,000 passing yards and 40 touchdowns this year. However, Burrow needs his defense to project leads if Cincinnati is going to win the AFC North.

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts — Eric Hartline/USA TODAY Sports

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (+2500)

The Eagles look positioned to take over as the top team in the NFC East. Jalen Hurts gains extra points for his value as a runner while being one of the top quarterbacks in the league, snipping rushing touchdowns.

Philly’s offense has an excellent chance of gaining 3,000 yards on the ground and more than 4,000 yards via the pass. In addition, he has the services of three excellent receiving options – A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.

Outside the top 15 quarterbacks ranked by odds, here are the players who have a live chance to lead their team to division titles.

MVP SLEEPERS

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins . — Matt Krohn/USA TODAY Sports

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (+5000)

Justin Jefferson is the first or second wideout drafted in most leagues. The Packers have massive questions at wide receiver, leading to some close losses by Green Bay in the fourth quarter. Minnesota should compete for the division title in 2022.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (+5000)

If the Bills trip up, Miami has improved passing options for their young, developing quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa.

Mac Jones, New England Patriots (+5000)

The summer reports on the Patriots’ offense haven’t been great, but New England has the best head coach in the league and Mac Jones has some swag to his game.

Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts (+6000)

The Colts are the SI Sportsbook favorites to win the AFC South (-125), but their MVP is Jonathan Taylor.

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns (+8000)

A new home and new passing toys may lead to a surprising season by Baker Mayfield. Tom Brady sways the odds with a long history of winning but this is the NFL, where injuries can change a team’s destiny in a blink of an eye.

Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints (+8000)

The Saints have a strong situation for Jameis Winston, featuring top pass-catching back and three viable options at wide receiver—especially if Michael Thomas is truly back. They also have a developing tight end in, Adam Trautman.