NFL Player Props: Mark Andrews Receptions, Yards, Touchdowns Bets Breakdown

Breaking down Mark Andrews’s receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns prop bets.

Kyle Wood | Sep 1, 2022

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Baltimore Ravens

Mark Andrews led all tight ends in targets, catches and receiving yards in 2021 and he tied for the league-lead at the position in touchdowns. Andrews finished firmly ahead of Travis Kelce in each of those categories to earn his first-ever All-Pro nod.

The Ravens’ top target set career highs across the board a year ago, and each of his 2022 prop markets appear well within reach. Andrews enters this season firmly entrenched as Lamar Jackson’s go-to receiving option, especially with Marquise Brown, his biggest competitor for targets, no longer in Baltimore.

Can Andrews deliver on his prop bets or is he due for some regression?

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Receiving Yards: Over 950.5 (-112) | Under 950.5 (-112)

It’s worth noting Andrews has only broken the 900-yard mark once in his career. He, of course, smashed that last season with 1,361 yards, the sixth-most in the NFL.

Andrews accomplished that feat in large part because he saw the most opportunities of his career by a long shot: His targets almost doubled from his career average of 78.7 to 153 and his receptions rose accordingly.

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There’s no reason that should change this season. The Ravens shipped out Brown and didn’t replace him, which makes Rashod Bateman the de facto WR1 but no one is supplanting—or even threatening—Andrews as the top target

Andrews was incredibly consistent last season as well. He broke 100 yards five times but still racked up yardage with the league’s best even when he didn’t hit the century mark. On a 17-game pace, a player would have to average a little less than 56 yards to break 950.5. He surpassed that mark in 13 games last season with his worst game coming in the season opener when he had just 20 yards.

Even with that bringing down his numbers, Andrews averaged better than 80 yards per game. He can regress more than 20 yards per game and still comfortably hit his over if he plays a full 17-game season.

BET: Over 950.5 receiving yards (-112)

Receiving Touchdowns: Over 7.5 (-118) | Under 7.5 (-118)

Touchdowns are more random to predict year-to-year than yards or catches. What we do know is Andrews has caught more than 7.5 touchdowns twice—last season (nine) and in 2019 (10). He has 10 combined in his other two seasons for an average of 7.25 per year in his four-year career.

When given the chance, Andrews has delivered on scoring opportunities. The two seasons he went under this total he averaged 69 targets per year. And the two times he went over, he saw 125.5 on average. That’s a massive difference for the 6’5” target and it helps explain his discrepancies year to year.

Andrews’s snap percentage has gone up each season, peaking at 75% in 2021. The more he’s on the field, the more targets he’ll see, specifically the all-important red zone looks where he scored all nine of his touchdowns last season.

Only 15 players in the NFL had nine or more scores last year. Andrews was one of them and I like him to repeat or even build on that success.

BET: Over 7.5 receiving touchdowns (-118)

Receptions: Over 83.5 (-112) | Under 83.5 (-112)

This is where I think regression comes for Andrews.

It’s no insult to say he won’t reel in 100 passes again this season, something only 10 players did last year. Of all the career highs Andrews set in 2021, his 107 receptions were perhaps the biggest outlier based on his career performance. Including last season, he averages a little more than 65 catches per year.

I expect the Ravens, with a hopefully healthier running back room and a full season from Jackson, to run more often. Additionally, Bateman might contend with Andrews more so for receptions than for yards or touchdowns.

Only 17 players had more than 83.5 catches last year and only two (Andrews, Kelce) were tight ends. I don’t expect a massive dip but this number feels a bit too high for my liking.

BET: Under 83.5 catches (-112)

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Published Sep 1, 2022

KYLE WOOD

Kyle is based in Washington, D.C. He writes the Winners Club newsletter and is a fantasy and betting writer for SI. His work has appeared in the Tampa Bay Times, Orlando Sentinel, Miami Herald and Gainesville Sun.