Cleveland Browns Over/Under Wins Total Betting Breakdown

The Browns’ win total at SI Sportsbook is set at 9.5 wins, with the odds heavily skewed toward the under.

The Browns were the story of the offseason for all the wrong reasons.

Cleveland acquired quarterback Deshaun Watson, who was the subject of two dozen lawsuits that detailed accounts of sexual assault and harassment at the time, sending the Texans a war chest of draft capital before signing its new quarterback to the largest fully guaranteed contract in NFL history.

That trade led to the franchise trading away No. 1 pick Baker Mayfield, who led the team to its first playoff appearance and postseason win in decades.

Watson settled all but one of the cases against him and was suspended six games following an investigation by an independent arbitrator in a process agreed to by the NFL and NFLPA. The NFL appealed that punishment, and it was increased to 11 games, includes a $5 million fine and requires Watson to undergo counseling.

Now, the Browns enter the 2022 season with Jacoby Brissett starting behind center for the majority of the season while Watson serves his suspension.

Brissett is 14–23 as a starter and posted a 2–3 record last season with the Dolphins. He joins a team with one of the best offensive lines and two capable running backs who lead a top-flight rushing attack. The Browns also acquired Amari Cooper from the Cowboys in a trade and drafted David Bell to improve their receiving unit, which lost many of its top pass catchers in the offseason, including Jarvis Landry, who led the team with 52 receptions.

AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | JAX | Division Odds
NFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TB | NO | ATL | CAR | Division Odds
AFC West Over/Under Wins Total: KC | LV | LAC | DEN | Division Odds
NFC West Over/Under Wins Total: LAR | ARZ | SF | SEA | Division Odds
NFC North Over/Under Wins Total: GB | MIN | CHI | DET | Division Odds
AFC North Over/Under Wins Total: CIN | PIT | BAL | Division Odds

On the other side of the ball, Cleveland has a talented defense led by All-Pro defensive end Myles Garrett that finished just outside the top 10 in DVOA in 2021.

The Browns are up against one of the 10 hardest schedules in the league this season, according to Sharp Football Analysis, which helps explain why the odds are so heavily skewed toward the under on their projected win total of 9.5 (-250).

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Cleveland Browns Over/Under: 7.5 - O (-125) | U (-111)

2021-22 record: 8-9; third AFC North; missed playoffs
AFC North future odds: +350 (Third)
AFC future odds: +2000 (Tied-10th)
Super Bowl future odds: +2500 (Tied-14th)

Key additions: QB Deshaun Watson, WR Amari Cooper, DT Taven Bryan
Key losses: C JC Tretter, WR Jarvis Landry, TE Austin Hooper

Browns Digest offseason grade: B

Losing Hooper and Landry might hurt the Browns more in the locker room than in terms of on-field play. Hooper was never productive or efficient with the Browns as a receiver and Landry has been ineffective the past two seasons in no small part due to injury. On the field, Tretter is the biggest loss, but due to his own injuries, he was almost never able to practice. As a result, Nick Harris, who is entering his third season, took almost all the starter reps in practice for 2021 and had an impressive performance against the Packers and standout nose Kenny Clark. That’s why the Browns are confident he can step in and start. It’s reasonable to question if enough was done at wide receiver or defensive tackle. —Pete Smith

SCHEDULE

Week 1: At Panthers
Week 2: Jets
Week 3: Steelers
Week 4: At Falcons
Week 5: Chargers
Week 6: Patriots
Week 7: At Ravens
Week 8: Bengals
Week 9: BYE
Week 10: At Dolphins
Week 11: At Bills
Week 12: Buccaneers
Week 13: At Texans
Week 14: At Bengals
Week 15: Ravens
Week 16: Saints
Week 17: At Commanders
Week 18: At Steelers

Cleveland plays in what’s viewed by some as the second-toughest division in football behind the AFC West. A season ago, the Browns went 3–3 against the AFC North—they somewhat surprisingly swept the Bengals, who went on to win the conference, dropped both games to the Steelers and split with the Ravens.

NFL Awards Betting: Coach | Comeback Player | Defensive Rookie | Offensive Rookie | Defensive Player | Offensive Player | MVP

The start of the schedule is easy, with three of the first four games against teams that did not make the postseason in 2021, though the Browns are underdogs on the road against Mayfield’s Panthers in Week 1.

Things pick up in Week 5 with a visit from the Chargers, which starts a stretch of seven consecutive games against teams that made the playoffs a season ago or are expected to do so this season, including the Ravens, Bengals, Super Bowl–favorite Bills and NFC favorite Buccaneers.

Cleveland could very well get off to a 3–1 start and end up 4–7 when Watson is scheduled to return Week 13 against the Texans, his former team. 

For the purpose of this exercise, I’m not going to project what Watson’s level of play will be when he comes back and how that will affect the team’s performance over those final six games. The last time he played a regular-season game was Jan. 3, 2021. The date of the first game in which he’s eligible to return from his suspension is Dec. 4, 2022. That’s a lot of time between regular-season action.

RB Props: Rushing Yds | Rushing TD | Taylor | CMC | Ekeler | Harris
QB Props: Passing Yds | Passing TD | Brady | Herbert | Allen
WR Props: Receiving Yds | Receiving TD | Kupp | Jefferson | Adams | Hill
TE Props: Kelce | Andrews | Pitts

Jeff Lange / USA TODAY NETWORK

Ultimately, I’m not willing to wager on this team’s win total. There's too much uncertainty with their quarterback situation, and the odds are heavily juiced when betting on the under.

BET: PASS

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