SEC Scenarios: Who Stays, Who Goes?

We see who has to give up playing at least one SEC sport in these six scenarios

SI Editorial | Jun 22, 2023

SEC Scenarios: Who Stays, Who Goes? /

In this story:

Arkansas Razorbacks

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Since SEC expansion first began in the '90s, there has been talk among fans about who should be kicked out of the league should the conference decide to contract.

However, the topic becomes much more interesting when the discussion becomes which schools can compete in the SEC in only one sport or has to sit out for a specific sport. Here's how things played out once allHogs reporters Andy Hodges and Kent Smith turned it over in their heads.

No Sports But Football

Hodges: Right now, this one isn't even close and Kent probably agrees with me, but the Georgia Bulldogs may just be doing other sports because they have to right now. Again, we're not talking about history (which is finished) or the future (that hasn't happened), but present day. The Bulldogs go tired of Alabama dominating football, hired Kirby Smart, told everybody else to go sit down and started winning games. It shows that going for championships requires an all-in commitment from the head of the university to the clean-up people. And they are only that way in football.

Smith: No team in all of college sports is a bigger one trick pony than Georgia. Outside of football, the Bulldogs are the ultimate dead weight pulling down the SEC in the other two revenue producing sports. Granted, if a school is only going to have one trick, then being dominant in college football is probably the best option. Clearly, it's kept Georgia from getting reallocated.

However, in this scenario, the Bulldogs are being packed off in all other sports in exchange for a team like Duke or North Carolina. Both are solid in both baseball and basketball, so whether it's the Blue Devils or Tar Heels, it's production and revenue where there wasn't any before from Georgia.

No Sports But Basketball

Hodges: Before Kentucky hired Mark Stoops, this would have been the Wildcats without question because they were all-in like Georgia on football, but that has changed. It drives John Calipari crazy, too, because this ain't what he signed up for when he stranded Memphis for Lexington. In Missouri that may be the only sport they figure they can win something doing, but they still really aren't completely all-in on it because Eli Drinkwitz and the money may prevent an all-in approach in Columbia.

Smith: This one has to be Missouri. Tradition holds that Mizzou is a basketball school despite those few down years leading up to the hiring of Dennis Gates. You'd be hard pressed to find SEC fans who remember the Tigers are a football member until they pop up on the schedule.

Missouri built a bit of momentum in its final years in the Big 12 and rode it into the SEC at the perfect time to take advantage of a down SEC East for a couple of division titles. Since then, the Tigers have yet to produce a winning conference record and fired Barry Odom, the only coach capable of dragging Missouri to a pair of low end winning records in 2017 and 2018 at 7-6 and 8-5 respectively.

However, when it comes to basketball, there's a lot of potential. Gates will make a Sweet 16 run at some point. Plus, when it comes to basketball, no fan base is more easily riled up over nothing than Missouri. They're a lot of fun to have around.

As for baseball, more than half the readers from across the SEC and probably even a few in Columbia just had to switch to another tab to see if Missouri plays baseball. For the record, there is a Tigers baseball team. It finished 10-20 in conference play this past season.

No Sports But Baseball

Hodges: Having owned radio stations in Mississippi, being around a lot of State fans, yes, baseball is even discussed during football season. They WANT to win in football, but they are as close as anyone can be in a league where revenue is driven by the money from media deals on football, which makes it nearly impossible to be all-in on any other sport.

Smith: This one was a little harder. It came down to evaluating whether a school was good, but not great in football and basketball with occasional stints of being really bad. Once that became the clear criteria, the choice became Mississippi St.

Don't laugh Ole Miss because you were almost the choice. The only reason the Rebels didn't get the call is because overall, the Bulldogs have a much greater baseball program. Your basketball is worse and it's pretty much a draw when it comes to football.

All Sports But Football

Hodges: The Hogs make this list, but not at the top simply because nobody has cared much about Vanderbilt football in nearly 100 years. If their tiny stadium is up to SEC standard, then the SEC should consider a lot of other schools that bring as much academically to the overall GPA and test scores while providing Freedom of Information protection for the rest of the league. They just don't care, but they do probably enjoy other teams' fans coming to games to help the entertainment value and bottom line.

Smith: Vandy is low hanging fruit in terms of football, but not quite strong enough in all the other sports to get this designation from me. Instead, it came down to either Arkansas or Texas. Both are rather pedestrian when it comes to football, but dominate their conferences in all other sports, even the non-revenue ones.

This has a lot to do with the hope that would be generated if the football team played outside of the SEC. Neither has much of a chance, even with the expansion to 12 teams, of ever making the playoffs as an SEC member. However, if in another conference, the schedule might be weak enough to make it happen.

The Chad Morris years hurt Arkansas a lot in this evaluation, but the Longhorns have been pretty bad for a long time in football also. The Razorbacks are better in baseball and draw twice as many fans, but the gap on overall performance isn't that wide despite the Hogs having the most wins in college baseball over the past half decade by a wide margin.

Both are big time basketball schools, so that's a wash also. As a result, this comes down to the highs and lows of the football programs to determine who gets to stick around with all three revenue sports. Both teams have one Top 10 finish since 2010, but only Arkansas has a Top 5 finish at season's end, so point to Arkansas. Texas has five losing seasons in that time frame, and thanks to Morris, the Razorbacks have six, so a point to Texas.

The Razorbacks have three seasons of nine or more wins since 2010, while Texas only has two, which puts Arkansas back in front. As for head-to-head during that time, the Hogs are 2-0 by a combined score of 71-28 over the Longhorns. Therefore, Arkansas gets to keep playing all four sports. Meanwhile, Texas has to play football elsewhere while the rest of its sports compete for national titles as part of the SEC.

All Sports But Basketball

Andy: Kent and I will probably go different paths on this, but I mentioned earlier I spent a lot of time in Mississippi covering sports, including two sports radio stations in Oxford. The Rebels care far more about football and baseball than basketball. It's interesting to note the hire of Chris Beard, but we'll see if he gets the support to build a winner where even baseball is a huge deal. Ole Miss has one of the nicest, perfectly-sized basketball arenas and Morgan Freeman is even frequently courtside on the first row, but the Rebels' faithful really don't care much whether they win big or not.

Smith: It took a second to put this one together, but once it clicked, it was obvious that the answer to this one is South Carolina. What clouded everything was that Cinderella run under Frank Martin to the Final Four in 2017. However, outside of that, the Gamecocks have been pretty bad at basketball for a very long time.

On the football side of things, South Carolina pops up and has a good year here and there. As for baseball, the Gamecocks are a traditional power, absolutely dominating the early 2010s while continuing to play at a high level since. Plus, the one fan base that is going to stick around to fill up the stadium for football no matter how bad the team may fall off are Gamecock fans.

All Sports But Baseball

Andy: Just about every team in the SEC pays attention to at least basketball and baseball because football money is going to flow, but you have to work a little for the others. This is a close one because several have decent programs, but just one seems to have little interest in any sport, but less in baseball since joining the league in 2012 and, once again, we go to the Show-Me state. It clearly supports professional baseball in St. Louis and Kansas City, but the Tigers have little interest in baseball, which probably isn't that surprising. Not one NCAA appearance since joining the SEC.

Kent: There are only two schools in the SEC that are bad at baseball on a regular basis and that's Missouri and Georgia. However, we've already established that Georgia is a huge drain on all sports outside of football, so there's no need to let them keep playing basketball in the SEC.

That only leaves Missouri. Unfortunately, it means teams will have to keep playing them in football and that silly Battle Line Rivalry bit will keep being shoved down the throats of the people of Arkansas, but there's no choice. If it's Bulldogs' basketball or Tigers' football, then let's keep running Eli Drinkwitz to the podium each year in whatever cosplay he's going to drag up.

At least Missouri football can get to .500 in conference every now and then. That's not going to happen for Georgia basketball.