Cincinnati Basketball Keys to the Game: Merrimack Warriors

Merrimack is the worst opponent UC will face for the remainder of the 2023-24 regular season.

CINCINNATI — UC men's basketball is out of non-conference chances to prove anything until Big 12 play starts, but the show goes on this week against Merrimack. 

The Warriors are 5-6 so far as they try to make some noise in the NEC this season.

It should be another easy win at home for Cincinnati as the Warriors enter with just a 3.2% chance to win the game on ESPN's matchup predictor. They rank 263rd on KenPom, while Cincinnati is 37th.

This will be the 44th Division 1 team Merrimack has played since entering the top level of the sport in 2019.

When UC Has The Ball

Can anyone take control as the lead offensive generator on this team? UC's deep rotation is turning into a head-scratcher as no one has taken on the lead creation role that David DeJulius left open last season.

Merrimack is a good team to test these options out on as they enter with a decent defense, ranking 132nd nationally in adjusted efficiency on KenPom. The Warriors' best player is the top option on defense and offense.

Guard Jordan Derdack (16.9 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists) leads the scouting report on both ends as an efficient, high-energy player who scores well inside the arc at 6-foot-5, 205 pounds. Defensively, he leads the team in rating (96.6) as a pesky on-ball defender that can disrupt a shaky backcourt, as UC's displayed.

He (2.3 steals per game) and fellow guard Adam Clark (12.4 points, 3.4 assists, team-high 2.9 steals) are steal savants. Clark ranks 10th nationally in steals per game and is at the heart of a Warriors defense forcing 14.3 turnovers per game (65th nationally).

If Cincinnati can continue to take great care of the ball (9.6 turns, 18th-best nationally) they should have little trouble with the Merrimack defense. This is another small lineup coming to Fifth Third Arena, with no rotation player taller than 6-foot-7.

When Merrimack Has The Ball

It all starts with stopping Derdack as Cincinnati gets to deal with another high-powered scorer on Tuesday. The Bearcats aren't doing a good job forcing teams away from their top option this season, something that needs to improve before facing elite top-tier talents on Big 12 teams.

Derdack sports a 31.4 usage rate, which is tops among all NEC players this season. The possessions roll through the slashing guard and they live and die by his performances. 

He also leads all NEC players with 53 free throw attempts thus far.

Derdack's game revolves around fast decision-making and contact hunting. Derdack doesn't shoot the three well (15.4%) and neither does the rest of the Warriors outfit in general (26.4% as a team, 351st nationally).

They are strong from everywhere inside the arc though as Merrimack enters shooting 56.8% from two-point range (37th nationally). Cincinnati needs to shape up the terrible defensive rotations from Saturday and force hard jump shots from long range out of this bad shooting team.

There are no sharpshooters to worry about like Dayton had, plus, Cincinnati's superior size should give them enough breathing room for a few slow rotations.

Prediction: 81-63 Cincinnati

Merrimack is the worst team left (by KenPom rating) on Cincinnati's schedule for the rest of the season. I don't expect to take anything of substance away from another tune-up game at home that I haven't already seen from a UC team that's played like front runners at 8-2.

They own a ton of size and playing style matchup advantages in this game and despite a slow tempo from the Warriors, they shouldn't be able to control the rhythm on the road. Cincinnati wins easily behind a split offensive showing across the whole rotation.

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