Cincinnati Basketball Keys to the Game: Stetson Hatters

UC faces one of the best scorers in the country on Friday night.

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats have one more game before a week off from matchups for the Holidays. Stetson is up next in another lopsided projection for Cincinnati hoops.

The Hatters (229th on KenPom) are the final team currently ranked outside the top 200 in KenPom that Cincinnati (37th) will play this regular season. The Bearcats enter another home contest as 93.1% favorites on ESPN's Matchup Predictor.

Cincinnati has to keep winning as they've lost breathing room for an NCAA tournament berth with the 82-68 loss to Dayton. Team Rankings dropped them from a 79% chance to make the dance to 68% following the loss, one of the ten biggest week-to-week drops in the country. UC is 1-1 all-time against the Hatters.

When Cincinnati Has The Ball

The Hatters sport a solid defense by raw stats (68.7 PPG allowed, 129th nationally), but are ranked 330th nationally by adjusted efficiency. This team doesn't force many turnovers and instead relies on very strong field goal defense to slow down opposing teams (39.8% allowed, 49th nationally).

At the heart of that is center Aubin Gateretse (11.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.8 blocks) at 6-foot-11, 210 pounds. The lanky Belgian holds the best defensive rating of any rotation player and is a vacuum around the rim as the team's best rebounder and shot blocker.

UC has had to deal with one very skilled big man this season and it resulted in a baptism by DaRon Holmes. Gateretse is an even better defender while boasting a 70.1% field goal mark on 7.3 shots per game. Cincinnati has to keep him away from the ball on both ends as much as possible or he could swing this contest too close for comfort.

On the perimeter, Cincinnati's growing guards have to watch out for Stephen Swenson (10.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.4 steals) who is filling up the stat sheet for the Hatters. He is right behind Gaterestse in defensive rating and is the only Hatter with a steal rate over 2.5%. Swenson's tenacious on the ball at 6-foot-2, 195 pounds. It'll be interesting if UC tries to attack him early in actions to get him worn out across the game as he is second on the team in usage rate and someone you want finishing possessions on the other end as opposed to the top Stetson option.

The Hatters only force 5.6 steals per game, and 8.8 turnovers per game as Cincinnati tries to clean up those issues from Merrimack. This is a great team to get right against on that end and the Bearcats will have little trouble if they can force Gateretse into foul trouble (36 fouls this season, most on the team) and take care of the ball.

When Stetson Has The Ball

It starts with Swenson, but the Hatters offense is driven by microwave scorer Julian Blackmon (22.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, 47..5% from deep).

The 6-foot-3, 180-pound talent is arguably the best shooter in the country, ranking sixth nationally in points per game and three-point percentage (47.5%). Among the 15 players to post at least 8.4 three-point attempts this season, Blackmon's 47.5% hit mark is the best.

John Newman III has his toughest test yet as the premier on-ball defender for UC.

 Blackmon doesn't get to the line much but is hitting 95.7% of his 3.9 FT attempts per game. Newman & Co. need to keep him inside the arc and force the worst shot in the sport out of Blackmon: Mid-range jumpers.

If not, the confident guard could keep this game close all by himself as an elite off-the-dribble shooter from deep. Any way you slice it, Blackmon can cash from a variety of looks that need to be inside the arc to keep his impact muted. He knows how good he is and it shows in his ambitious shot selection. He's a liability on defense though, holding the worst defensive rating of any Stetson player (107.1).

Cincinnati has struggled against elite scorers this season, allowing nearly 80 points combined to Seth Towns, Quincy Olivari, and DaRon Holmes over the past month. Stetson shoots 27.3 threes per game (38th nationally) at a 37.3% hit rate (50th). It starts with Blackmon and Cincinnati can't let that sports car leave the garage.

Prediction: 84-73 Cincinnati

UC should get CJ Fredrick back from injury this week and I think that'll be enough to boost the offense into the 80s again along with what I expect to be Jamille Reynolds's best game so far in his third outing.

The Bearcats limit Blackmon to 17-20 points on poor outside shooting and posts a season-low for turnovers in a clean, yet tight victory at times.

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