Cincinnati Basketball Keys to the Game: TCU Horned Frogs

The Bearcats are on a streak of ranked opponents to start the conference slate.

CINCINNATI — Cincinnati Basketball's Big 12 gauntlet rolls on this week as the TCU Horned Frogs come to town fresh off wins over top-10 teams in Houston and Oklahoma.

Cincinnati is 5-0 against TCU since 1949 and could use a home win to keep in the thick of the NCAA Tournament at-large race. UC's lost its past two games by a combined four points as the three-point shots get harder to make in conference play.

UC is in the midst of its longest stretch of AP top 25 opponents since 1994.

The Horned Frogs enter this game ranked 29th in the NET and 22nd on KenPom, While UC is 33rd and 32nd. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Cincinnati a 65.9% chance to beat the Horned Frogs.

When TCU Has The Ball

Jamie Dixon's crew is one of the toughest, more competitive teams in the country and that starts on offense with an attacking mentality that preaches ball movement. Cincinnati's perimeter defense answered the call on Saturday and has another brutal test coming to town with four players averaging at least 2.8 assists for the 26th-best offense in the nation by adjusted efficiency.

It all starts with bruising 6-foot-7 wing Emanuel Miller (16.8 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.8 assists). UC has to slow down one of the most efficient offensive hubs in the country and force him off the ball. Miller owns a 25.2 PER (fifth in the Big 12) and a blistering 130.8 offensive rating with him on the floor. All of that is on a moderate 23.6% usage rate with 50/40/84 shooting splits.

Cincinnati can start with limiting the talented wing but the issue with TCU is balance. The entire Bearcats defense has to be on point Tuesday or any mixture of players could assassinate. Those include strong guard Jameer Nelson (11 points, 3.4 assists), wing Micah Peavy (10.6 points, 4.8 rebounds), and guard Avery Anderson (9.6 points, 3.6 assists).

The whole rotation can move the ball well (18.9 assists, ninth nationally) and pounds the paint and two-point area with endless shots (19th in two-point attempts, 48th in percentage). Potentially getting Aziz Bandaogo back from a back injury to combat these attacking wings is a massive swing point. None of TCU's top players are taller than 6-foot-7.

They are an average shooting team (173rd in three-point percentage) that can go cold if UC can stop initial penetration from the perimeter and get either Bandaogo or Viktor Lakhin to block out the sun down low.

When Cincinnati Has The Ball

A two-level game on defense and a two-level game on offense, that's what good teams like TCU require. Cincinnati cannot turn the ball over like they did against Texas or the small knifing Horned Frogs will be able to run like they love to do (45th in pace).

That's how TCU's created a lot of easy buckets this season as a team forcing 16.2 turnovers per game (16th nationally). If Day Day Thomas, Jizzle James, and more can't hold onto the ball, Cincinnati is in for a rough time. The Horned Frogs play like their mascot on defense to make up for a lack of size.

Strong ball handling and pinpoint passing inside to the likes of Viktor Lakhin and more are crucial. Cincinnati has to get the big man going as an offensive hub following a seven-point performance against Baylor. The home confines should help Cincinnati's outside shot which is getting left behind on the road.

UC has just 24 made threes in five games outside of Fifth Third Arena. Getting someone going beside Dan Skillings (who made every UC three against Baylor), will help ease those passes inside and bring more overall balance on offense. Still, it won't be easy with how well TCU closes out on the line, allowing teams to shoot just 30.3% from deep this season (54th).

Prediction: Cincinnati 71-70

Either side has a case to win this game, but I think the tight-game experience from last week produces a winning result for UC against TCU. Skillings should continue to impact the game well as he keeps growing and Lakhin has done a nice job against smaller teams this season.

Bandaogo returns and makes enough of an impact in his minutes to get UC a crucial home win following two losses.

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