Preview: Cincinnati Rounds Out Road Trip Against Slumping Tulsa

The Golden Hurricane have one conference win this season and it came against South Florida.

CINCINNATI — David Dejulius and the Cincinnati Bearcats (16-7, 6-4) are gunning for a 2-0 road stint this week when they face the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (7-15, 1-10). The Bearcats leading scorer is averaging 19.6 points over his last six games, including 20 points in UC's 90-69 thrashing of Tulsa last month.

The Golden Hurricane are going through a rough conference season. They are in last place (11th) and have one win in AAC play against the 10th-place South Florida Bulls. Cincinnati enters the game ranked 79th in KenPom, while Tulsa sits at 173rd.

UC is 31-13 all-time against Tulsa, including an 11-2 mark in the AAC. ESPN's matchup predictor has the Bearcats winning 55.1% of the time.

Cincinnati likely won't hit 16 threes as it did in these two team's first meeting, but it's far from impossible against this paper-thin Tulsa defense. There isn't one positive defender on this entire rotation.

Of the nine players to log 100-plus minutes in conference play, none has a defensive rating below 100.7. For context, Cincinnati has four players in its 11-man rotation with a rating over 100; and none over 105.6. The Golden Hurricane sports six players over 107 points allowed per 100 possessions.

It's a mess, and the traditional stats aren't much better. Tulsa is bottom-three in the conference in FG% allowed (44.4%), three-point FG% (36.4%), and points allowed (71.7). On the season, Tulsa is allowing a disastrous 53.2% effective field goal rate (307th nationally).

The Golden Hurricane does one thing well, and that's force turnovers. Tulsa ranks 34th nationally with a 22% turnover rate this season—unfortunately for them, Cincinnati is one of the best ball-handling teams in the country (15.8% TO rate, 30th nationally).

Offensively, Tulsa pounds the rock for most of the shot clock and relies on two-shot creators for the majority of its offense. Sam Griffin (15 points per game in conference play) and Jeriah Horne (14.5 points, team-high 6.3 rebounds) are leading the way for Tulsa in AAC play.

Force that pairing into an inefficient night, and Tulsa crumbles. They attempt 25.4 shots as a duo, while the other six players in the rotation average 27.9 shots combined in conference play. Horne and Griffin like to shoot it from outside, with the former taking over half of his shots from three on 32.4% shooting.

Although, as I noted above, Tulsa doesn't have many reliable outside threats. Horne has been their best weapon on that front, canning 38.9% of his three-point attempts over the past 11 games. The 6-foot-7 versatile forward was the brightest spot in Tulsa's last game against Cincinnati.

Horne dropped 19 points on 50% shooting and is the biggest mismatch problem for Cincinnati. The Bearcats don't have many prototypical matchups to throw at his 220-pound frame. Jeremiah Davenport will likely draw that assignment on plenty of man-to-man possessions in this contest.

Darien Jackson (8.5 points on 50% shooting) is a guy who probably needs to start shooting at a pace that mirrors Tulsa's two leading scorers. The 6-foot-3 guard has a strong feel for pockets of space close to the basket. He is a rare guard that's hyper-efficient inside the arc.

Jackson holds the third-highest two-point percentage in the conference (61.9%) and is third in eFG% (57.9%). The senior poured in 21 points on 9-of-13 from inside the arc against UC. If Cincinnati can force him into more outside shots (17.6% from deep in 2021-22), they'll boost their chances at victory even more.

One player to watch in this game that hasn't been mentioned is Tulsa's most prominent interior presence, Rey Idowu (9.1 points, 4.5 rebounds in AAC play). The 6-foot-9, 240-pound bruiser is second on the team behind Horne with a 20.7 Player Efficiency Rating.

Idowu is Tulsa's only true interior presence, and the offense changes for the better when he is on the floor. The Golden Hurricane score 118.3 points per 100 possessions with Idowu playing—the best mark of any Tulsa player. Unfortunately for Idowu, Cincinnati has plenty of size to counter him.

That played out to a tee last month; Idowu finished with four points on 1-for-6 shooting from the field. He had very little room to work down low, but he's trending up in a big way heading into Saturday's game. Idowu is averaging 18.5 points and 4.5 rebounds on 85.7% shooting over his past two outings.

Cincinnati can't play with their food in this game. The time to impress NCAA Tournament decision-makers is running out. Two emphatic blowouts of Tulsa in one season is just what the doctor ordered. Saturday's result can't help the Bearcats out much on that front, but a road loss would end any hope of an at-large bid.

As long as the Bearcats don't set a new season-high in turnovers against Tulsa, Dejulius & Co. should have more than enough firepower to overwhelm arguably the worst defense in the AAC.

The game tips off from Oklahoma at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

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