Preview Paw Prints: Memphis Tigers Game Two

Cincinnati has played Memphis the second-most times out of any opponent in team history.

CINCINNATI — The biggest matchup of the Wes Miller era is upon us.

The Bearcats (19-10, 10-6) take on Memphis (21-7, 11-4) at FedEx Forum on Sunday with the inside track for one of the AAC Tournament's top-three seeds on the line.

UC has already lost to the Tigers at home this season 75-68 and is expected to lose again. 

ESPN's Matchup Predictor has Memphis winning 71.8% of the time. The Tigers enter this contest ranked 38th in KenPom, while Cincinnati sits at No. 67.

Here's the preview as Cincinnati tries to avoid a fifth-straight loss to Memphis.

Tournament Seeding Primer

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There are a couple of scenarios where Cincinnati can move up in the AAC standings, and both require a win against Memphis. The Tigers just beat Wichita State on Thursday to take over second place in the AAC Standings.

Here is how things break down right now:

Houston 14-1          26-2 Overall

Memphis 11-4 3 GB  21-7 Overall

Tulane 10-4 3.5 GB  17-8 Overall

Cincinnati 10-6 4.5 GB  19-10 Overall

Temple 9-7 5.5 GB  15-14 Overall

Wichita State 7-8 7 GB  14-13 Overall

To at least be the three-seed, Cincinnati has to win out and get an additional loss out of Memphis against either SMU on the road or Houston at home in the season finale.

Should that happen, both teams would be tied at 12-6 in conference play. To break that tie, The AAC uses "each team’s record vs. the team or tied teams occupying the highest position in the standings. Continue down through the standings until one team gains an advantage."

Cincinnati would win the tiebreaker because both teams went 0-2 against Houston, while UC got a win against Tulane. Memphis lost both contests to the Green Wave.

Now, the Green Wave are currently in third place, with four games still to play in the AAC. A 3-1 finish (V. WSU, @ ECU, V. ECU, V. Temple) cements them as the two seed. 

A 2-2 finish creates a three-way tie, which Tulane wins due to the mini-conference tiebreaker: "The team with the best record (as determined by winning percentage, even if unequal games) vs. the other teams in the mini-conference gains the advantage."

Tulane would be 3-1 in that scenario, Cincinnati 2-2, and Memphis 1-3. The 2-4 seeds would break down in that order.

The Bearcats' one hope for a two-seed is if Tulane goes 1-3. UC wins the original two-team tiebreaker over a 2-2 Memphis in that scenario because Tulane is the next highest team in the standings after Houston, as stated in the AAC rulebook: "If an advantage is not determined, proceed to the next team or group in the standings for comparison."

None of this matters if Cincinnati doesn't break the losing streak this weekend.

Offensive Showcase

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Two of the best offensive teams in the AAC should mean plenty of fireworks on Sunday. Memphis enters the game ranked 35th nationally in offensive efficiency, while Cincinnati is 64th.

The programs make up two of the top three scoring teams in the AAC, with Memphis averaging 80 PPG and UC slotting right behind them at 77.5 PPG.

Don't expect anything less than 75-80 points from the Tigers on Sunday after they got reigning AAC Player of the Year Kendric Davis (21.2 Pts, 3.8 Reb, 5.7 Ast) back from an ankle injury for the win over WSU.

Davis was his normal self in the 83-78 win, posting 19 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists. He's the top assist artist on the AAC's top assisting outfit. Memphis also leads the AAC in field goal percentage (48.4%).

The attack should be a bear for Cincinnati's recovering key player. 

Viktor Lakhin (12.4 Pts, 7.0 Reb, 0.5 Ast) returned from his ankle injury during the last game as well. He moved nicely and started to get his defensive timing back to normal in the second half of UC's 88-83 win over Temple.

One thing to note is the absence of starting Memphis guard Keonte Kennedy (9.2 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 0.8 Ast). The Tigers' third-leading scorer is out for the rest of the regular season due to injury, but Memphis didn't miss him much on Thursday.

Two-Point Terror

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Clamping the paint a little bit is imperative against a team like Memphis. 

Davis is one of the better driving guards in the country and thrives on contact. He owns the all-time AAC record for free throw percentage (85.3%) and leads all AAC players in free throw attempts (208) and makes (176).

He powers a two-point offense ranked fifth nationally in makes per game (23.4), and 60th in two-point FG% (54%). Sprinkle in the 31st-most made free throws per game, and you get one of the best interior offenses in the country.

Forward Deandre Williams (17.4 Pts, 7.9 Reb, 2.9 Ast) also has a lot to do with that production, with many of his buckets coming on Davis assists. Williams owned the Bearcats in their first meeting this season to the tune of 26 points and 8 rebounds.

The 6-foot-9 problem is sixth in the AAC in scoring and fourth in rebounds per game—while also being ninth in blocks per game (1.0)

The Bearcats have handled him before, and they'll have to tap back into that success in enemy territory. During Williams' two other career meetings against UC, he produced just 18 combined points.

Here's the preview as Cincinnati tries to avoid a fifth-straight loss to Memphis.

Cincinnati faces Memphis on Sunday at 2 p.m. ET. The game is available on fuboTV—start your free trial here.

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