Season Predictions: Thoughts on Every 2022 UC Football Game

Win? Loss? Find out how Russ Heltman thinks the season record will shake out.

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats' 2022 football season is just days away as the team pursues a third-straight AAC Championship win and another New Year's Six Bowl appearance. 

There is no better time to dive into each game and predict the slate in front of Luke Fickell's team. Here are game-by-game predictions for the 2022 season.

@ Arkansas, Sept. 3 - WIN

I'm going out on a limb and taking the Bearcats to win this game on the road against the Razorbacks. No matter who is behind center for UC, they are well supported by a flush stable of running backs and receivers.

I think the underdog Bearcats flash the beginning of a pass-heavy style in Fayetteville and win a close battle. Either way, I'd be shocked if this game doesn't at least stay close until the final minutes. 

Cincinnati is 4-1 against the spread in its last five as an underdog, and 8-2 ATS in their last ten games against ranked opponents.

V. Kennesaw State, Sept. 10 - WIN

This could be a great spot for whoever doesn't end up running the UC offense in week one. Either Ben Bryant or Evan Prater can sharpen their skills a bit more if UC expectedly gets to mop up duty early.

Anything less than a double-digit win would be a disappointment, even though the FCS-housed Owls did go 11-2 last season and won the Big South.

@ Miami (OH), Sept. 17 - WIN

This may technically be a Miami home game, but it's all going down at Paycor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati. Uc has won 15 straight contests in the Battle for the Victory Bell and that streak won't end in 2022.

Miami projects as one of the better teams in the MAC but is still not a top-80 program nationally. Yet, This could be a good test for UC's defense before facing Indiana. Miami ranked 64th in offensive SP+ last season and return eight starters to that side of the ball, including QB Brett Gabbert.

V. Indiana, Sept. 24 - WIN

The series finale of these teams' home-and-home affairs should be a nice launching pad into the conference slate. The Hoosiers fell off a cliff last year, going 2-10 and finishing 100th in SP+.

IU returns just 11 of the 24 players who saw 300-plus snaps last season and has major coaching turnover under Tom Allen. Consistency on one sideline wins out over a reshuffling on the other when this series concludes.

@ Tulsa, Oct. 1 - WIN

I don't expect the Golden Hurricane to be much better than Indiana this year, and that means another win for UC. Davis Brin gives Tulsa stability at QB, but he's playing behind four new offensive line starters.

Tulsa won four straight games to close last season and make it a respectable campaign. They could need that kind of late-season gelling again with lots of new faces outside the O-line getting asked to step up.

V. South Florida, Oct. 8 - WIN

Baylor transfer Gerry Bohannon is the Bulls' new quarterback after beating Timmy McClain out for the job, and he's tasked with turning around a rough stretch in Tampa. USF is 3-18 under head coach Jeff Scott and unfortunately for Scott, Bohannon can't play defense.

The Bulls project to have the 102nd-ranked defense by SP+ and the only player to worry about on that side of the ball is LB Antonio Grier, who posted three sacks and 14 pressures on 67 pass-rushing snaps last season.

@ SMU, Oct. 22 - WIN

The first big test for UC in the conference comes on the road against SMU. I picture the Bearcats squeaking out a tight win against a veteran SMU team with plenty of returning starters.

QB Tanner Mordecai headlines an offense with its top running backs (Tre Siggers and Ulysses Bentley IV) and receiver (Rashee Rice) back for more on an offense projected to finish 13th nationally in SP+. I think the Blackcats defense is sharp enough to come out on top in what should be a fun outing at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.

@ UCF, Oct. 29 - LOSS

On the heels of a hard-fought road win over SMU, I have the Bearcats dropping this game to the Golden Knights for the first time since they lost 38-13 in 2018.

UCF has a nasty secondary headlined by CB Davonte Brown—who allowed just a 19.9 QBR and broke up 13 passes (one interception, 12 breakups) when targeted last season. On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss transfer QB John Rhys Plumlee makes just enough plays with his feet and arm to edge Cincinnati in what should be one of the best games in the AAC this season

V. Navy, Nov. 5 - WIN

The Midshipmen gave UC a scare in 2021 in a 27-20 win for the Bearcats, but this one should look a lot more like the 42-0 win UC notched over Navy in 2018.

They are ranked 105th in overall SP+ heading into this season and 119th on offense with the famous triple option. That offense relies entirely on the quarterback and Navy hasn't found that answer since Malcolm Perry left. 

There isn't a good chance things get a lot better with Tai Lavatai coming back as the starter. He posted a 31.9 QBR last season (119th among all QBs).

V. ECU, Nov. 12 - WIN

ECU played UC tight in the opening half last season and then got dominated after the break in a 35-13 loss. This one could be much closer.

The Pirates rank 73rd nationally in preseason SP+ and define as an average team across the board. They do sport a ton of returning experience though, headlined by QB Holton Ahlers and four veteran O-line starters. Defensively the Pirates lost a pair of talents in the secondary (corner Ja'Quan McMillian and safety Warren Saba), but have nearly every other first and second-string position returning defensively.

UC sneaks out a win against a Pirates team I expect to make a bowl game.

@ Temple, No. 19 - WIN

The Owls haven't been relevant in the AAC for the better part of six years and that's not going to change in 2022. They project as the 124th-ranked team in SP+ with the 126th-ranked offense.

Temple has some all-conference candidates on defense, but with an entirely new coaching staff, this game should not be close.

V. Tulane, Nov. 26 - WIN

UC is 3-0 against Tulane this century and it'll be 4-0 by the end of November. The Green Wave offense should keep this game within two touchdowns, powered by RB Tyjae Spears, the defense is where mismatches come to play.

Tulane gave up the 11th-most passing yards per game (271.3) and touchdowns per game (2.3). There isn't a clear savior ready to step in and make plays on a unit that ranked 115th in SP+ heading into 2022.

AAC Championship Game, Dec. 3 - WIN

It's hard to imagine two teams will go undefeated in AAC play so that means UC would at least be playing in the title game at the end of the season. They may not get home-field advantage if a team like Houston runs the table, but whoever they end up facing will go home disappointed.

The reload is on at UC and the whole country will look at this program as a top-10 level outfit by the end of 2022. A third-straight AAC title can help cement that. Luke Fickell has pushed all the right buttons to have his team firing on the right cylinders in December.

He does it again and makes UC the first team in AAC to not only win three straight titles but three in general on their way out of the league and into the Big 12.

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