Ian Anderson, ‘The Last Duel’ and the Eagles: Trying to Make Sense of the Ace's Decline

In today’s Five-Tool Newsletter, we lament the diminished role of postseason starting pitchers and look ahead to tonight’s Game 4.

Pitching was the story of last night’s World Series game. The controversy was Atlanta manager Brian Snitker’s decision to yank Ian Anderson while he had a no-hitter going after five innings and only 76 pitches. The verdict: a 2–0 Atlanta win in the pivotal Game 3. The team now leads the series 2–1 with a chance to win the next two games and clinch the World Series at home.

The game itself was exciting, if unnecessarily long. One swing from the best offense in baseball could’ve flipped the climax of this story entirely. Had the Astros taken advantage of the few chances they had with a man on base late in the game, I’d be using the space in this newsletter to rip Snitker for taking Anderson out so soon.

Ian Anderson :: Brett Davis/USA TODAY Sports

I noted earlier this week that Houston’s hitters are some of the best I’ve ever seen at making adjustments when facing the same relief pitchers for the second, third or fourth time in the same series. These relievers were already tasked with covering a majority of the innings in tonight’s Game 4, and quite possibly in tomorrow night’s Game 5 as well due to Charlie Morton’s season-ending injury. Yet here was Snitker, taking the ball from a starter who had befuddled the Astros and exposing his bullpen to one of the more dangerous, adaptable lineups of the last 20 years. Whatever the outcome, Snitker knew the decision could have negative consequences for the rest of the series, but he didn’t allow himself the luxury to think that far ahead. His team had a chance to win last night’s game, and he wasn’t going to let that opportunity pass over concerns of the state of his pitching staff two games later.

In that context, the decision is understandable—and is far more palatable because Atlanta won. But just because something makes sense doesn’t mean we have to like it. The quick hook was disappointing, because it indicated that the trend we’ve been forecasting for so long has crossed the point of no return.

Tom Verducci’s column about the latest display of MLB’s starting pitching problem is not one of frustration that this game ain’t like it used to be. It’s also not one of nostalgia. We aren’t longing for the days of Koufax, Gibson and Seaver so much as we are lamenting the loss of one of the game’s starring roles. As Tom notes, there were still some glimmers of hope as recently as two years ago, when the Nationals relied upon their trio of All-Star starting pitchers to win the World Series.

Tom’s lede reads much like an added verse to “After the Thrill Is Gone,” the wistful ninth track on the Eagles’ 1975 album One of These Nights. Slightly altered to fit the song’s structure, his lede is as follows:

Blockbuster action movies on your phone.
Vienna Philharmonic heard on cheap headphones.
Seeing what starting pitching has become—
After the thrill is gone.

Baseball fans Don Henley and Glenn Frey couldn’t have written it much better themselves.

So now here we are, awaiting tonight’s World Series Game 4 and thinking about last night. I enjoyed watching the tight, low-scoring Atlanta win, and yet I woke up today feeling unfulfilled. Bullpenning is bad for baseball because it works. The only ones who are pleased with what they saw are Atlanta fans—and they should be! But it’s a shame that this appears to be the best way to win now and in the future.

Feel free to O.K. Boomer me for this newsletter, despite my 26 years of youth. After all, I just complained about the death of the playoff ace and used an Eagles song to do so. Here's an old-man gripe: watching all the pitching changes in a baseball game is like following all the character arcs in the latest Marvel movie. I certainly can have a good time watching Avengers: Endgame, which is the best of the ensemble superhero films, but these movies shouldn’t be the only major theatrical events.

Maybe it’s fitting, then, that the most recent movie I saw in theaters was Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel, an epic medieval tale from a master filmmaker starring Matt Damon and Adam Driver (is he hot or not?!). I absolutely loved it, yet I wonder how many more films like it will be made. Despite its being the first movie Damon and Ben Affleck have written together since Good Will Hunting, and despite its cast also featuring stars Affleck and Jodie Comer (both akin to indispensable closers), it bombed at the box office.

Why take a chance financing a big-budget picture with no possibility of sequels or spin offs when you can invest in the latest lucrative superhero movie?

Same Marvel movie, same new hit radio song;
Your films make no money and no longer belong.
Why risk leaving your starter in too long?
After the thrill is gone.

Have any questions for our team? Send a note to mlb@si.com.

1. THE OPENER

“Soon the players and owners will renew their usual squabble over economic issues as they attempt to reach a new collective bargaining agreement. Meanwhile, the true threat to baseball is the aesthetics of the game—pace of play, including the enormous influence of pitching changes on declining offense and length of games. It is the climate change issue of baseball.”

We’ve already mentioned Tom Verducci’s column from last night’s game, but I wanted to highlight this paragraph. This is a bleak outlook for baseball, and it puts into context the stakes of what’s to come this offseason.

Read Tom’s entire story here.

2. ICYMI

Want to read about the Astros’ side of last night’s game? We’ve got you covered.

Astros’ Dangerous Offense Silenced as Atlanta Earns World Series Advantage by Emma Baccellieri
To quiet Houston’s hitters is to shut down one of baseball’s most fearsome, versatile and balanced groups. And yet, that’s what Atlanta did.

If you didn’t get a chance to read Stephanie Apstein’s Daily Cover story about the tomahawk chop, I encourage you to do so before tonight’s Game 4.

Why Does MLB Still Allow Synchronized, Team-Sanctioned Racism in Atlanta? by Stephanie Apstein
This weekend, a nationwide television audience will see a largely white crowd mocking a people its ancestors tried to erase.

Miss Tom’s brilliant Dusty Baker profile from Tuesday? Here you go!

Dusty Baker's Time Is Now by Tom Verducci
His career as a manager is defined by having won more games without winning the World Series than anyone in history. His story is about more than the one thing it's missing.

3. WORTH NOTING from Tom Verducci

Jose Altuve is an aggressive hitter. Always has been. Swinging at first pitches is not a problem. This postseason Altuve has swung at 43% of first pitches—almost exactly the same rate as he did when he won the MVP in 2017 (42%) and barely off his career rate (39%).

And check out these splits to see why it’s a good idea for him to swing early:

Altuve 2021 Postseason

Altuve’s biggest problem has been chasing bad pitches, not the first pitch. Altuve has a 42% chase rate in the World Series, up from 30% in the regular season.

4. WHAT TO WATCH FOR

If you thought both managers went to their bullpens early last night, just wait till you watch tonight’s Game 4 (8 p.m. ET, Fox). Both Atlanta and Houston are going with the Johnny Wholestaff approach because neither have a true starting pitcher available. Dylan Lee is the opener for Atlanta, while Zack Greinke gets the nod for the Astros. Greinke, a future Hall of Fame starter, isn’t built up to carry his typical workload after missing a good chunk of the season’s final month due to COVID-19 and a neck injury. Dusty Baker said last night he isn’t sure how long Greinke will be able to pitch, so he’ll be used more like an opener.

Let’s hope Greinke stays in the game long enough to get one final MLB at bat before the expected implementation of the universal designated hitter next year. A two-time Silver Slugger winner, Greinke is a career .225 hitter and is worth 5.1 bWAR as a batter over his career. Most remarkably, his career .336 slugging percentage is better than three Hall of Fame position players: catcher Ray Schalk (.316), shortstop Ozzie Smith (.328) and second baseman Johnny Evers (.334).

One more thing to watch for: Joc Pederson's new pearls.

Twitter/@stephanieapstein

5. THE CLOSER from Emma Baccellieri

Travis d’Arnaud was Atlanta’s most productive hitter in Game 3, with a double and an eighth-inning homer that provided a key insurance run. (It was also his first home run all season at the Braves’ home field of Truist Park.) Part of the secret, he says? He was using Joc Pederson’s bat.

In an NL park without the DH, Pederson didn’t have a spot in the lineup, but this meant that his presence was still felt at the plate. “I picked it up, and I said, ‘Joc, this feels pretty good,’” d’Arnaud said of Pederson’s bat. “He said, ‘It's yours, big guy.’”

That’s all from us today. We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow. In the meantime, share this newsletter with your friends and family, and tell them to sign up at SI.com/newsletters. If you have any questions or comments, shoot us an email at mlb@si.com.