Cincinnati Basketball Keys to the Game: Baylor Bears

The Bearcats are road underdogs again as they head to Texas.

CINCINNATI — Only three Big 12 teams remain undefeated in conference play this season and Cincinnati faces the best of that bunch with a trip to take on No. 14 Baylor this weekend.

The Bears boast one of the best offenses in the country (87.7 PPG, sixth nationally) powered by major NBA Draft prospect in guard Ja'Kobe Walter (15.3 points, 4.2 rebounds). They enter this game ranked No. 14 on KenPom, while Cincinnati is sitting at No. 32 following the close Texas loss.

Baylor has only lost neutral site games to Michigan State (19th in KenPom) and Duke (No. 8 in KenPom) this season as Cincinnati tries its toughest test yet.

According to Sport Reference, these two programs have not faced each other dating back to the 1949-50 season.

When Baylor Has The Ball

Perimeter defense is at the top of the game plan for Cincinnati. John Newman III & Co. will have their work cut out for them against Walter, Rayj Dennis (13.9 points, 3.7 rebounds, 6.7 assists), and Langston Love (11.3 points, 1.9 rebounds).

Those three guards power a filthy shooting offense with Walter (40% from deep on 5.7 tries per game) spearheading five shooters hitting at least 40% of their threes on at least 2.7 attempts. It's led to the best three-point shooting mark in the country (43.3%).

That sets up a something's got to give matchup for a UC defense allowing just a 31% hit rate from deep (88th nationally). Newman, Dan Skillings, Day Day Thomas, and more will have to play elite on-ball defense to slow down this cadre of shooters. 

Walter is one of the top 25 candidates for the Wooden Award.

He and Dennis are fantastic shot creators, while the latter is one of the best passers in the country (Dennis's 6.7 assists per game ranks second in the Big 12). The Bears hold a backcourt advantage, but I think UC has the size and frontcourt advantage.

Big man Yves Missi (10.1 points, 6.3 rebounds) is a big fulcrum point for this game. Cincinnati has to punish him with physicality and force him away from offensive rebounds (45 this season, fourth most in the Big 12) where he powers an astounding 28.3 PER (second in Big 12). He's by far their best rebounder on a team ranked 200th in total rebounding.

Taking out Missi's rebounding impact is crucial for Cincinnati to get enough extra possessions against arguably the best offense in the nation.

When Cincinnati Has The Ball

Baylor is an elite offensive team and a very solid defensive team on the other end. Missi's impact carries over here as the top defensive stalwart on the squad (team-best 94.4 defensive rating).

The 6-foot-10, 235-pound forward leads the Big 12 in block rate (9.1%) and is 19th in steal rate (2.8%). He's had a major defensive impact around the rim this season but can be susceptible to foul trouble. Going double big with Viktor Lakhin and Jamille Reynolds could be a great way to start that snowball.

Cincinnati should go right at Missi with efficient close shots early and see how he responds. This makes sense given the fact Baylor allows opposing teams to hit just 31.2% of their threes (98th nationally), but 50.9% inside the arc (259th nationally)

Can Lakhin keep up the pace as an All-Big 12 player so far? Can Reynolds keep stacking low-post efficiency? They'll have to or Cincinnati won't have many other options to unlock the offense. Lakhin's done a great job finding his sweet spots down low lately (averaging 15 points on 53% shooting past five games).

Moving to the perimeter, guard Jayden Nunn (10 points, 2.7 assists) has had a lot to do with that good three-point defense. He is second behind Missi in defensive rating and leads the team with 1.4 steals per game at 6-foot-4, 190 pounds.

One last note, how healthy is Aziz Bandaogo? The UC forward was clearly bothered by his back on Tuesday after getting pushed on a lob early in the game. He ended up with just five rebounds and no points in 16 minutes (the fewest in his past five games). 

If that's still lingering, UC is in big trouble on Saturday.

Prediction: 83-70 Baylor

Cincinnati's defense can't withstand the title wave of scoring options Baylor boasts with Walter posting 20 points as the leader. The free throw woes also keep popping up as Baylor allows 19.1% of opponent's total points to come from the line (200th nationally), but Cincinnati can't take advantage of 20-plus attempts and shoots below 60% again.

The three-point line gets largely shut down as Baylor pulls away in the final five minutes.

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