Preview: UC Travels to Memphis for First AAC Road Test of 2022

The Tigers have two of the top college prospects nationally in Jalen Duren and Emoni Bates.

CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Bearcats (11-4, 1-1) faces one of its quicker turnarounds of the season when they travel to meet Jalen Duren and the Memphis Tigers (8-5, 2-1) on Sunday.

Penny Hardaway's team has gone through a rollercoaster start to the season but is looking for a groove in these early parts of AAC play. Memphis came out firing off wins left and right but immediately fell flat during a 1-5 stretch. That can happen when so many different talented players are trying to find their roles.

Cincinnati enters the game ranked 78th in KenPom, while Memphis is 34th and represents the highest-ranked opponent in KenPom since facing Xavier about a month ago. ESPN's matchup predictor has Memphis winning 82.9% of the time.

Memphis is a daunting task for this strong Cincinnati defense like SMU projected as but in many different ways.

The Tigers have morphed across the first two months of the season into a balanced, physical unit. Among their top-five scorers, 6-foot-5 Lester Quinones is the only player shorter than 6-foot-7. Cincinnati won't have their usual size advantage in this game. The Bearcats rank 11th in KenPom's effective height metric, while Memphis is slightly lower at No. 30.

Memphis is one of the weirdest teams in the country to evaluate. They don't move the ball well without a primary playmaker and seemingly always get opponents into foul trouble. The Tigers have no players averaging over three assists while leading all teams nationally in free throw attempts (24.7 per game) and ranking fourth in makes (17 per game).

Who's the dominant scorer and foul magnet, you might ask?

There isn't one, as ten Tigers average between 5.1 and 11.3 points this season. Deandre Williams (11.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists) and Duren (11.1 points, team-high 7.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists, team-high 2.6 blocks) lead the balanced brigade.

Both of them are interior bruisers who attempt a combined 1.6 triples per game. A senior, Williams is the veteran presence to Duren's youth on the inside. The latter was the No. 1 ranked forward in the Class of 2022 but decided to reclassify and team up with fellow top recruit Emoni Bates at Memphis.

Bates got all of the headlines, but Duren has been the more consistent player as a freshman. Illinois center Kofi Cockburn and Xavier center Jack Nunge punished Cincinnati in their meetings, and Duren will look for a path to dominance closer to Cockburn's.

At 6-foot-11, 250 pounds, Duren sports an NBA frame that swats shots with reckless abandon, while also displaying nasty agility and athleticism on the offensive end. He has the best FG % on the team by nearly ten percentage points.

He is one of the best shot blockers in the country on the other end. Duren's timing his swats well this season to rank 26th in blocks per game overall and third among freshmen. Memphis likes to push the tempo (23rd in pace, 74.3 poss. per 40 minutes), find high-value looks close to the basket, and bully teams to get to the free-throw line.

Unlike SMU, the Tigers aren't big fans of the three-ball. Memphis attempts 18.8 threes per game (299th) to 38.2 two-pointers (116th). Keeping them barricaded from any path to the rim is crucial in this contest, along with forcing turnovers.

Taking care of the basketball is as much of a weakness for Penny Hardaway's team as free throws are a strength. Of the 358 Division I teams, no one turns it over more than Memphis (18.4 per game).

To put that number into context, Memphis turns the ball over 0.8 times per game more than the second-worst team in IUPUI. That is the same amount of turnovers separating IUPUI and the 10th-worst team. It's been that sloppy for Memphis—they are one of seven teams since 2010 to turn the ball over at least 18 times per game and the only one to hit the current 18.4 mark.

I mentioned how this team has no one averaging more than three assists per game, and that issue pops up with ballhandling duties. Point guard Boogie Ellis transferred to USC this offseason, and they never really replaced him with a dedicated floor general.

Standout recruit Emoni Bates (10.8 points, 1.2 assists, 2.8 rebounds) was supposed to be Hardaway's man running the point, but the 17-year old kid justifiably needs more time to adjust to this level of play. He's coming off the bench in recent weeks but still gives the ball up the second-most times of any player on the worst turnover team in the country (2.5 per game).

The last big thing to note in this game is injuries. Memphis lost to Tulane 85-84 last week with a few starters banged up, and the roster hasn't gotten much healthier since.

Penny Hardaway’s injury report:
Lomax: Ankle (out)
Chandler Lawson: Ankle (out)
Nolley: Neck (game time decision)
Duren: Hip (game time decision)
Williams: Back (game time decision)
Hardaway: Leg (game time decision)
Bates: Finger (practiced, game time decision)

— Cassie Carlson (@CassieCarlsonTV) January 7, 2022

That's four key rotation players with a coin-flip status for Sunday's game and a confirmed absence from Alex Lomax (5.9 points, team-high three assists, 2.9 rebounds), who's the closest thing Memphis has to a point guard.

Depending on who ends up playing for Memphis, Cincinnati needs to slow the game down, make the Tigers execute against a hounding half-court defense, and stay disciplined with their physicality. Memphis is loaded with talent, but things have been far from consistent thus far.

Cincinnati will need to bring offensive consistency on the road trip to match blows with the bruising Tigers.

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