SP+ projects the final score for Georgia Tech vs. Wake Forest

SP+ sees Georgia Tech as a big underdog this weekend

When the odds for week four of the college football season were released on Sunday, Georgia Tech opened as an eight-point underdog against Wake Forest. By Monday afternoon, the line had come all the way down to just favoring the Demon Deacons by three and it has settled there since. 

While the Yellow Jackets might only be slight underdogs in the betting markets, ESPN's Bill Connelly and his SP+ projection system have Georgia Tech as a much bigger underdog than just a field goal. 

At the start of each week, Connelly releases the SP+ score predictions for each game and for Georgia Tech's trip to Wake Forest, SP+ has Wake Forest winning 35-20, with an 80% winning probability. 

😍🏈 WEEK 4 SP+ PICKS 🥳🎺

Ohio St 28, ND 27!
Clemson 29, FSU 26
Ducks 46, Buffs 17*
Utah 29, UCLA 26
Bama 32, Ole Miss 25
Ore St 29, Wazzu 24
Penn St 26, Iowa 14

Holy smokes, this week is LOADED.

* CU *did* underachieve projections last wk...https://t.co/fjsWyQPXfP pic.twitter.com/RW9x4P76ah

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 17, 2023

Currently, Wake Forest is 45th in SP+ with the No. 37 offense and the No. 61 defense. Georgia Tech is ranked 80th, with the 74th offense and 85th defense.

So what exactly is SP+ and what goes into making these rankings? Here is how Connelly formulates his rankings in his own words:

"I base SP+ projections on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production make up about half of the projections formula

2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning this season, I am also incorporating transfers -- both the quality and the volume -- in a different way. After last season's transfer-heavy recruiting shift, I've got a bit more data for how to handle that. This piece makes up about one-third of the projections formula.

3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This is a minor piece of the puzzle -- only about 15% -- but the projections are better with it than without.

A reminder on SP+: It's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year."

Betting odds per Si Sportsbook: Wake Forest -3.5; Over/under 60.5; Moneyline: Wake Forest -175, Georgia Tech +138

How to Watch Georgia Tech at Wake Forest

Who: Georgia Tech at Wake Forest

When: 6:30 p.m., Saturday

Where: Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, Winston-Salem, NC

TV: CW Network (Peachtree TV in Atlanta)

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