Winners Club: Kansas City Faces Tough Road to Seventh Straight Division Title

Plus, line movement for Rams-Bills, Justin Herbert and Tom Brady lead the passing prop markets and more from training camp.

Good morning! Welcome to Week 1 of the preseason.

The Ravens extended their NFL-record win streak to 21 games Thursday night with a win against the Titans and the Giants defeated the Patriots on a last-second field goal. There’s five more games on the docket tonight and plenty more all weekend long to satisfy your football fix.

But if preseason football isn’t your thing, there’s real news about a highly anticipated regular-season game: The Bills are now road favorites in the season opener against the Rams, the defending Super Bowl champs.

Buffalo, the Super Bowl favorite, is now giving 2.5 points to Los Angeles at SoFi Stadium and is -133 on the moneyline at SI Sportsbook. L.A. opened as a slight favorite and Matthew Stafford’s lingering elbow injury could be the reason for the odds shift.

Do with that information what you will.

Let’s get into today’s news, which includes a betting breakdown of the AFC West, an examination of passing prop markets and the weekly training camp breakdown.

Division-Favorite Chiefs Will Be Challenged in AFC West

Kansas City won the AFC West for the sixth season in a row in 2021, and the oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook like Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid to make it seven straight this coming season.

The Chiefs are the favorites to win the NFL’s toughest division despite trading Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins. The Chargers could challenge K.C. for the title, which they haven’t won in more than a decade, after an offseason of upgrades on both sides of the ball.

The Broncos, who won five division titles in a row before the Chiefs began their run, hope to return to the playoffs with the quarterback position finally addressed after the Russell Wilson trade. And bringing up the rear are the Raiders, one of two teams in the division who made the postseason in 2021 and made an offseason splash by reuniting Davante Adams with his college quarterback, Derek Carr.

Each team is a viable playoff contender, but it’s likely they cannibalize one another in a tough division and a deep AFC where nine wins wasn’t enough to make the postseason in 2021. Read our betting breakdown of the division, plus the individual team over/under betting previews:

Kansas City Chiefs: 10.5 — Over (-125) | Under (-110)

AFC West future odds: +150 (First)
AFC future odds: +450 (Second)
Super Bowl futures odds: +900 (Third)

“This newish roster still has the Chiefs with some of the best odds in the NFL, but they do not enter this year as the team to beat. Kansas City is behind the Bills at SI Sportsbook in AFC future odds and a slight AFC West favorite over the Chargers. Kansas City has won at least 11 games in each of the last four seasons and seven of the last nine, but its over/under is just 10.5 wins.” — Matt Ehalt

Los Angeles Chargers: 10.5 — Over (+100) | Under (-143)

AFC West future odds: +240 (Second)
AFC future odds: +800 (Tied-third)
Super Bowl futures odds: +1400 (Tied-sixth)

“It seems almost preordained that the Chargers will be playing in the Super Bowl in Arizona in February after they pillaged defenses to improve their own and again bolstered their offensive line via the draft. But first they have to return to the playoffs, something the franchise has done just twice in the last decade and not since 2018.” — Kyle Wood

Ringo H.W. Chiu/AP

Denver Broncos: 9.5 — Over (-141) | Under (+105)

AFC West future odds: +260 (Third)
AFC future odds: +800 (Tied-third)
Super Bowl futures odds: +1600 (Tied-eighth)

“Afforded a solid defense and a plethora of young offensive weapons, can Wilson provide a big enough boost to a passing attack that ranked 19th in passing yards per game (211.4) to surpass the regular-season wins total projection of 9.5 games while playing in the NFL’s toughest division?” — Frankie Taddeo

Las Vegas Raiders: 8.5 — Over (-125) | Under (-110)

AFC West future odds: +650 (Fourth)
AFC future odds: +2000 (Tied-11th)
Super Bowl futures odds: +3300 (Tied-17th)

“With new head coach Josh McDaniels at the helm and trade acquisition Davante Adams, arguably the NFL’s best wide receiver, joining talented receiving weapons in Waller and Hunter Renfrow, the Raiders look ready to compete in the AFC West. But is a pathway to wins through the AFC too big of a challenge for the new-look Raiders?” — Jen Piacenti

John Locher/AP

More divisional betting breakdowns:

AFC East: Bills | Patriots | Dolphins | Jets

NFC East: Cowboys | Eagles | Commanders | Giants

AFC South: Titans | Colts | Texans | Jaguars

NFC South: Buccaneers | Saints | Panthers | Falcons

Next up: the NFC West!

Herbert, Brady Lead the Way in Passing Prop Markets

Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady led the NFL in passing yards (5,316) and touchdowns (43) in 2021. He beat out Chargers second-year signal-caller Justin Herbert for the yards title (5,014) and Stafford (41) for the passing touchdowns crown.

Unsurprisingly, Brady and Herbert—who are separated in age by 21 years—rank first and second in both of those markets for the coming season.

The Buccaneers and Chargers both project to be rich offenses in 2022 with loads of fantasy value, deep receiver rooms and talented running backs.

Chris O'Meara/AP

Brady (+500) is the favorite to lead the league in touchdowns, while Herbert (+600) is tied for the second-best odds with Bills quarterback and SI Sportsbook NFL MVP favorite Josh Allen. Mahomes (+700) and Stafford (+750) round out the top five.

Herbert (+700) has the edge to lead the league in passing yards for the coming season with Brady (+750) a close second. Mahomes (+800), Stafford (+800) and Joe Burrow (+900) make up the rest of the top five contenders.

For more on individual player props, click here for Brady’s breakdown, here for Herbert and here for Allen.

Training Camp News Roundup

A few players emerge each season from relative unknowns to fantasy relevance.

In 2021, it was Elijah Mitchell. In 2020, it was James Robinson, and in 2019 it was D.J. Chark. If you can successfully identify that player before the season even begins and a FAAB bidding war ensues, you’ll have a definitive leg up on your opponents.

So, who will it be in 2022? Shawn Childs has been combing through training camp reports in search of that player and two unlikely players have been in the news this week: Packers fourth-round receiver Romeo Doubs and Chiefs seventh-round running back Isiah Pacheco.

Colin E. Braley/AP

Get the latest news on Doubs's and Pacheco’s performances, as well as injury updates from around the league in Childs’ latest training camp fantasy update.

More fantasy football and NFL reading:

Standard Scoring 12-Team Mock Draft

Michael Fabiano’s Top 200 PPR Redraft Rankings

Matt De Lima’s Top 400 Best Ball Rankings

Todd Bowles is Confident Tom Brady Will Play Week 1 Amid Camp Absence

Comparing Running Back Player Props to Average Draft Position

Mitchell Trubisky to Start Steelers’ First Preseason Game

Tony Pollard Practicing at Slot Receiver During Training Camp

Patriots RB James White Retires After Nine Seasons

In Other News

Notre Dame Football Betting Breakdown: First-year head coach Marcus Freeman’s Fighting Irish have a tough challenge against Ohio State in Week 1. Expectations are still high in South Bend, though, where Notre Dame is projected to vie for a sixth consecutive 10-win season.

College Football Schedule Notes: Which program has the easiest start to the season? How about the hardest? What are the games to watch each week? Pat Forde answers all that and more in his 40 observations about the 2022 season.

NBA Offseason Grades for All 30 Teams: Rohan Nadkarni graded each team’s offseason as the league continues to wait with bated breath for movement on the Kevin Durant trade front. The Celtics earned an A+, while some other contenders received failing marks. See the East breakdown here and the West here.

Ranking College Quarterbacks 1-131: Week 0 is right around the corner, so now is as good a time as any to familiarize yourself with the starting signal-callers for every team in the country and see where they stack up.

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Thanks for reading Winners Club! Enjoy your weekend of preseason action. And remember: Draft season is swiftly approaching, so make sure you’re preparing with the SI Fantasy Draft Kit.