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Winners Club: What You Need Before Betting on Wild Card Weekend
At long last, the NFL playoffs are here and the wild-card matchups couldn’t be better. There are revenge games on deck and projected sub-zero temperatures across six contests from Saturday to Monday.
Good thing nothing else major went down in the football world this week… right? The coaching carousel spins on, but let’s turn our attention to these postseason matchups this weekend.
In today’s Winners Club:
Betting Breakdowns for Wild Card Matchups
This wild card weekend has a little bit of everything. We have two games with spreads tighter than a field goal and two that are wider than a touchdown; there are two contests with over/unders in the 50s and one in the 30s; and, as already mentioned, revenge is top of mind for several players and coaches.
Check out the schedule for the next three days of football below, complete with spreads and totals from SI Sportsbook and individual game breakdowns.
Saturday
4:30 p.m. ET (NBC): Browns (-2.5) vs. Texans | Total: 44.5
Can Joe Flacco go on a run like he did a decade ago and propel the Browns to the promised land? Or will C.J. Stroud pick up his first playoff win as a rookie? Cleveland beat the Texans 36–22 in Houston just a few weeks ago, but Stroud missed that matchup.
Saturday
8 p.m. ET (Peacock): Dolphins vs. Chiefs (-4.5) | Total: 43.5
Tyreek Hill is making his return to Kansas City this weekend but the sub-zero temperatures could pose a problem for the Dolphins, who are used to playing in warm weather. Can Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce beat Miami again? Or will Tua Tagovailoa pull off an upset in his playoff debut?
Sunday
1 p.m. ET (CBS): Steelers vs. Bills (-9.5) | Total: 35.5
Strong winds figure to play a factor in Orchard Park on Sunday, which helps explain why this game has the lowest total of the weekend. Can Josh Allen and the Bills cover as such heavy favorites or will the Mason Rudolph-led Steelers shock the NFL world?
Sunday
4:30 p.m. ET (FOX): Packers vs. Cowboys (-7.5) | Total: 50.5
Coach Mike McCarthy gets another crack at the Packers, his former team, this time at home. Everyone knows it’s been decades since the Cowboys made the NFC Championship Game, but the way Dak Prescott and the Dallas defense have been playing, this could be the year. Green Bay is looking to extend that drought behind the play of Jordan Love.
Sunday
8 p.m. ET (NBC): Rams vs. Lions (-3.5) | Total: 51.5
Matthew Stafford is headed back to Detroit, where he spent most of his career, to take on the Jared Goff-led Lions. Stafford replaced Goff in Los Angeles and won a Super Bowl two years ago while Goff finally took Detroit to a division title, its first in the 21st century. Can he follow Stafford’s blueprint and take his second team all the way?
Monday
8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN): Eagles (-2.5) vs. Buccaneers | Total: 43.5
Jalen Hurts is hurt and the Eagles are in bad shape overall heading into the playoffs after a Super Bowl appearance a season ago. Baker Mayfield’s Buccaneers have less pressure on their shoulders and home-field advantage. Can Philadelphia right the ship or will Tampa Bay advance?
PHI-TB Betting Preview (coming soon on si.com/betting)
Conference Championship, Super Bowl Odds
The betting odds heavily favor a Ravens-49ers Super Bowl LVIII matchup, which would not only be a rematch from Week 16 (a 33–19 Baltimore win that all but clinched the MVP for Lamar Jackson), but also from Super Bowl XLVII, which the Ravens also won, 34–31, in the Harbaugh Bowl.
Our writers aren’t going against the grain with their picks for the Big Game: Ravens vs. 49ers it is, they say. Check out the complete playoff brackets from The MMQB and consult the SI Sportsbook futures odds to see where all 14 playoff teams stand, from San Francisco, which is the odds-on favorite to win the NFC, to the Steelers, a long shot to make any noise in the postseason.
AFC Championship Odds
Ravens +125
Bills +275
Chiefs +450
Dolphins +800
Browns +1200
Texans +2000
Steelers +4000
NFC Championship Odds
49ers -125
Cowboys +300
Eagles +700
Lions +900
Rams +2000
Buccaneers +3300
Packers +4000
Super Bowl Odds
49ers +225
Ravens +320
Bills +650
Cowboys +750
Chiefs +900
Lions +1600
Eagles +1600
Dolphins +2000
Browns +3500
Texans +4000
Rams +5000
Buccaneers +6000
Packers +6600
Steelers +12500
Fantasy Football Postseason Picks
The player pool has narrowed to just 12 teams for those who are playing postseason fantasy football this week, as eighteen teams are out of it and the Ravens and 49ers both earned byes. Michael Fabiano helped sort the best and worst players at every position from the available field.
He likes Stafford as a start at quarterback in his return to Ford Field and I emphatically agree.
Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: QB | RB | WR | TE | K & D/ST
Player Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | FLEX | K | D/ST
Jen Piacenti also broke down the entire playoff slate from a DFS POV. She sorted quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends into three categories: Spend up, mid-tier and bargain. I also like Najee Harris as a cheap option at running back the way he’s been playing lately and it sounds like the wind in Buffalo will force both teams to run the ball.
In Other News
Patriots Hired Jerod Mayo as Head Coach: New England tapped its linebackers coach to replace Bill Belichick. Mayo is set to become the youngest coach in the NFL at 37 years old and he will also be the first Black coach in franchise history.
Alabama Eyes Three Replacements for Nick Saban: The Crimson Tide are reportedly focused on Washington’s Kalen DeBoer, FSU’s Mike Norvell and their own offensive coordinator Tommy Rees to replace the recently retired Nick Saban.
NBA Wants to Extend 2024 Draft to Two Nights: The league is looking to split the first and second rounds of the draft over the course of two days, which could allow teams more time to work out trades.
As always, thanks for reading! Enjoy your super wild-card weekend and be sure to look out for another edition of Winners Club in your inbox Sunday morning. For all of our coverage, follow us @SI_Betting and @SI_Fantasy.
Kyle is based in Washington, D.C. He writes the Winners Club newsletter and is a fantasy and betting writer for SI. His work has appeared in the Tampa Bay Times, Orlando Sentinel, Miami Herald and Gainesville Sun.