Identifying Starting Pitchers the Cincinnati Reds Could Target in Free Agency

The Reds are at the mercy of a skyrocketing pitching market.

The market isn’t exactly moving in a favorable way for the Cincinnati Reds. 

The Reds were hoping to add a table-setter in their rotation this offseason. The price for that kind of pitcher has only gone up since the beginning of free agency, and it was already perceived to be pretty high. 

So what are the Reds options?

The fantasy baseball feeling of adding Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery would be sublime, but how realistic is it? 

The Dodgers are driving the price of starting pitching up, not only in money, but also in contract length. They gave Tyler Glasnow a five-year extension heading into his ninth season coming off his “healthiest” year of 21 starts. They also gave Yoshinobu Yamamoto a 12-year contract before he ever threw a pitch in the big leagues. They also signed Shohei Ohtani to a record-setting contract that at least partly bets on his ability to get healthy and pitch again. 

The Dodgers can afford to spend capital on gambles. The Reds do not have that luxury.

All of the Reds possible starting pitchers have question marks. Sure, there’s talent and potential. A lot of it. Potential is different from reliability, though. 

The Reds have little to rely on other than hoping a very young pitching staff realizes its potential. They need at least one stable pitcher with a proven big league resume. Is that guy still available?

The trade market seems to be overblown. The White Sox want the world for Dylan Cease and the Guardians want to add Emmanuel Clase to any Shane Bieber trade, driving that trade price way up. 

Let's take a look at the starting pitchers the Reds could target in free agency:

Pricey $$$

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Snell, Montgomery or even Marcus Stroman present good resumes. They're reliable pitchers the Reds could safely pencil into their rotation and feel good about it. They also will command a lot of money and long-term contracts. 

While Cincinnati may be willing to spend the money, the contract length is a major factor. That could keep them from adding a top veteran starter in free agency.

Even Jeimer Candelario’s multi-year contract ends before the bulk of the Reds young talent hits arbitration. Signing someone to a five-plus year contract will overlap with that timeline. It's something Nick Krall will probably try to avoid. 

Too Old to Move the Needle

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Johnny Cueto, Corey Kluber, Zack Greinke, and Carlos Carrasco have all tasted success throughout their respective careers. Now they are seeking a team to pitch for in 2024. None of these pitchers would be big enough moves to improve the Reds standing among the National League playoff contenders. Sure, it would be fun to have a Cueto reunion, or to see Greinke pitch in Cincinnati, but those guys aren’t bringing the Reds closer to the playoffs in 2024.

Two Non-Top Tier Possibilities

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Michael Lorenzen is an interesting possibility and so is Lucas Giolito, but both have different question marks.

Lorenzen had a pretty solid season in 2023, though he seemed to fatigue toward the end of the year. He pitched well enough to make an All Star team with the Tigers. He then was relegated to the bullpen for the Phillies after they acquired him at the deadline. Can he make 30 starts in a season?

While Giolito made an All Star team in 2019, and received Cy Young votes in three straight seasons, he has struggled over the past two years. He has made 30+ starts in each of the past two seasons, but posted an ERA of 4.88 in 2023 and 4.90 in 2022.

He also allowed the most homers in the American League last year. Could Derek Johnson unlock what Giolito excelled at from 2019-21?

The Reds need a starting pitcher that can deliver 30 reliable starts. Giolito done that in the past, but must prove he can once again do it well. There's a flaw with the free agent options, which means Cincinnati may need to re-evaluate how they're going to add the veteran starting pitcher they covet.

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