PECOTA Projections Unfavorable to Cincinnati Reds Ahead of 2024 Season

The Reds are projected to take a step back this year.

The Cincinnati Reds are not look upon favorably in the most recent PECOTA projections.

Despite their surprising 2023 season, PECOTA is joining the chorus of projection systems proclaiming regression for the Reds. They have Cincinnati finishing fourth in the National League Central with an average win-loss record of 78-84.

Baseball Prospectus uses the system predict the standings of the upcoming season by simulating 1,000 seasons. They use odds and algorithms to predict each team’s chances of making the playoffs. PECOTA constantly runs updated projections as the rosters for teams change. 

Related: Why Reds are National League Central Favorites

In their projections, the Reds are one of the best teams in the National League at scoring runs, but one of the worst at preventing them. In fact, only two other National League teams allow more runs in these projections than the Reds.

PECOTA has the Cardinals winning the division, the Cubs as runners up, and the Brewers in third place

Cincinnati has a 22.3% chance of making the playoffs this year, according to the projections. 

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