Cincinnati Reds Should Focus on One Starting Pitcher Trade Over Others

Reds have one trade option that seems better than the rest.

The Cincinnati Reds have been linked to plenty of different starting pitchers and trade rumors this offseason. 

Since the Reds were in on Sonny Gray at the same time they were negotiating with Nick Martinez, it would seem to be that Nick Krall is still in the starting pitcher market. 

What potential trade would be the best fit for the Reds?

Ranking this isn’t just a “which pitcher is best” exercise. A big part of these rankings will be the trade cost. Obviously, just signing a free agent ace is preferable to trading away prospects for one, but we will focus strictly on the trade route in this article.

The Reds have been linked to Chicago White Sox ace Dylan Cease, Tampa Bay Rays starter Tyler Glasnow, and Cleveland Guardians ace Shane Bieber.

Bieber is the available option on the trade market. He will cost less compared to the others, according to Baseball Trade Values. In fact, Cease’s value is $40.4 million, Glasnow is $12.8 million, and Bieber sits at $5.6 million. While that’s not exact, as Baseball Trade Values is more of a “based on a true story” rather than gospel, that’s still a good way to begin to understand the price of these trades.

According to these values, the Reds could conceivably trade either shortstop Leonardo Balcazar or second baseman Hector Rodriguez straight-up for Bieber. If the Guardians want some quantity over quality, the Reds could package right-hander Ty Floyd and outfielder Ariel Almonte. 

Will that be the exact trade? Probably not, but will the exact trade be far more costly than that? Not likely. If you can limit your cost to two prospects that haven't reached Double-A and you receive an ace, the Reds have to make this deal yesterday.

Bieber has seen a downtick in his production due to some injury issue. The Reds probably wouldn't be getting the Bieber of 2019-20, but they also aren’t being forced to pay that price.

The Reds will be paying a higher trade price for Glasnow. He's also the most injury-prone of the trio. As I pointed out above, Glasnow could fetch more than Bieber in a trade, but doesn't have the track record to buoy his injury concerns.

Glasnow has made 21 starts in a season just once, and it was last year. Other than that, he’s never made more than 14 starts in one season. His rate stats are phenomenal, and it's easy to see him becoming a bonafide ace, but the durability concerns coupled with his salary costing more than twice as much as Bieber makes this a less palatable option.

Then there’s Cease. He checks every box. He would be an instant ace. He knocks the durability question out of the park as he has made at least 32 starts in a year for three-straight seasons. He also has two years of team control left with this year’s salary expected to be under $9 million. All of those make him far and away the most desirable of these three pitchers. They also make him the most expensive of these three.

His value has him right between Andrew Abbott and Matt McLain, as far as single player value on the Reds. That means a trade package the Reds would put together would require a lot. For example, a Cease deal could mean parting with it may very well be something like this: right hander Connor Phillip, shortstop Edwin Arroyo, and second baseman Ricardo Cabrera.

That’s just the beginning of a possible deak, as the White Sox could conceivably demand more since Cease is so desireable on the trade market. 

Regardless, the cost for Cease keeps him from being the best option for the Reds, though it would be an amazing day if Krall landed him.

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