NFL Betting Advice: Favorite Over/Under, Player Prop, Award Futures

Our betting analysts provide their favorite NFL wins total over/under, player prop and award futures for the 2022 season.

Kyle Wood | Sep 5, 2022

The Bills and Rams take the field at SoFi Stadium on Thursday in a matchup that pits the Super Bowl favorites against the reigning Super Bowl champions.

That highly anticipated game kicks off the 2022 season, so get your bets in beforehand. Win totals, props, awards and more are all available at SI Sportsbook.

I asked my colleagues from the SI Fantasy and SI Betting teams what their favorite bet is for each of the above categories. Our writers submitted a diverse set of responses with a few bold predictions. See who’s planting their flag where and tail their wagers accordingly, if you’re so inclined.

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SI Fantasy/Betting Managing Editor Bill Enright: Steelers over 7.5 wins (-125)

Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season as the Steelers' head coach. Let me say that again with more emphasis: Since taking over in 2007, Tomlin has led the Steelers to a winning or .500 record. Losing is simply not in his DNA and he’ll get this team to at least eight wins, regardless of who is playing under center.

SI Fantasy Editor Craig Ellenport: Saints over 8.5 wins (-111)

The Saints, who have averaged 11.6 wins over the last five seasons, will contend for the NFC South title.

SI Senior Fantasy Writer Michael Fabiano: Browns under 9.5 wins (-250)

No Deshaun Watson for 11 games and playing in the tough AFC North makes it tough for the Browns to get to 10 wins.

SI Betting Editor Matt Ehalt: Packers over 11.5 wins (+100)

Playing in the NFC North guarantees the Packers five to six wins each season.

SI Fantasy and Better Writer Shawn Childs: Lions over 6.5 wins (-125)

The rise of Lions football begins in 2022.

SI Fantasy and Betting Writer Kyle Wood: Saints over 8.5 wins (-111)

A hobbled Saints squad topped this win total a season ago—a markedly better receiving corps for a healthy Jameis Winston will see to it that it does so again.

Favorite Wins Total Over/Under

AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | JAX | Division Odds
NFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TB | NO | ATL | CAR | Division Odds
AFC West Over/Under Wins Total: KC | LV | LAC | DEN | Division Odds
NFC West Over/Under Wins Total: LAR | ARZ | SF | SEA | Division Odds
NFC North Over/Under Wins Total: GB | MIN | CHI | DET | Division Odds
AFC North Over/Under Wins Total: CIN | PIT | CLE | BAL | Division Odds

SI Senior Betting Writer Frankie Taddeo: Seahawks under 5.5 wins (+110)

Anytime I can fade Geno Smith at plus-odds, sign me up. The Seahawks will battle for the right to choose between C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young next April.

SI Betting and Fantasy Writer Jen Piacenti: Cardinals over 8.5 wins (-125)

The Cardinals won 11 last year, the NFC West has two teams with inexperienced signal-callers and this year Kyler Murray might not play as much Call of Duty.

SI Fantasy Editor Matt De Lima: Bengals over 9.5 wins (-133)

The Bengals' win total being set at 9.5 is cringe. The AFC North is at a collective low not seen in years and Cincinnati is primed for a run at the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson, center, smiles while taking part in a joint practice with the San Francisco 49ers during NFL football training camp in Eagan, Minn., Thursday, Aug. 18, 2022. — Abbie Parr/AP

Favorite Player Prop

Enright: Derek Carr Over 4,350.5 Passing Yards (-118)

Derek Carr finished with 4,804 yards (fifth-best) in a very tumultuous 2021 season in Las Vegas. Henry Ruggs had a DUI that resulted in the death of a young woman and Jon Gruden was fired as head coach. Despite the chaos, controversy, and tragedy around him, Carr still managed to perform on the field. Factor in the addition of Davante Adams to the receiving corps and the hiring of an offensive mastermind in Josh McDaniels as head coach and Carr will coast to the over.

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Ellenport: Derrick Henry over 1,375.5 rushing yards (-118)

Over the last three seasons, Derrick Henry averages 115.4 yards per game. At that pace, he’d hit this prop in his 12th game.

Fabiano: Cam Akers Under 925.5 rushing yards (-118)

I’m not convinced that Cam Akers will even be the Rams’ Week 1 starter, and even if he is he’ll split the workload with Darrell Henderson.

Ehalt: Kyle Pitts over 74.5 receptions (-118)

Kyle Pitts should be targeted early and often in the Falcons’ offense with a lack of playmakers surrounding him.

Childs: Gabriel Davis over 865.5 receiving yards (-118)

The next DK Metcalf, Gabe Davis is flying under the radar.

Wood: Allen Robinson Over 875.5 receiving yards (-112)

Allen Robinson has smashed this total in each full season of his career, and now he’s teaming up with the best quarterback he’s ever played with.

Taddeo: Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Leader (+800)

As good as Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase are, the third-year wideout is poised to be the best WR in the league in 2022.

Piacenti: Tom Brady over 36.5 passing touchdowns (-118)

Tom Brady threw 40 touchdowns in 2020 and 43 in 2021 and he wouldn’t unretire on a low note.

De Lima: Alvin Kamara Rushing Touchdowns Leader (+2500)

Betting on Alvin Kamara to lead the league in rushing touchdowns is a great value. I really prefer him over Mark Ingram in New Orleans’ run-first attack and Kamara is not far removed from scoring 16 rushing touchdowns in 2020.

Cincinnati Bengal quarterback Joe Burrow looks for a receiver during NFL football training camp in Cincinnati, Monday, Aug. 15, 2022. — Aaron Doster/AP

Favorite NFL Award Future Odds

Coach of the Year
Comeback Player of the Year
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Defensive Player of the Year
Offensive Player of the Year
MVP

Enright: Justin Jefferson Offensive Player of the Year (+1400)

Unlike the MVP award, which has been dominated by quarterbacks the last two decades, the offensive player of the year award is trending toward crowning running backs and wide receivers. In three of the last four seasons and six of the last nine, a running back or wide receiver has claimed this prestigious award. Enter Justin Jefferson, who has the second-best odds to lead league in receiving and has combined for the most receiving yards the last two years. Jefferson is in line for a major boost in production thanks to Kevin O’Connell taking over as Vikings head coach. O’Connell served as the Rams’ offensive coordinator in 2021 when Cooper Kupp won the OPOY award and claimed the NFL’s triple crown title.

Ellenport: Juju Smith-Schuster Comeback Player of the Year (+2000)

Nice odds for JuJu Smith-Schuster, who should be Patrick Mahomes’s No. 2 target after Travis Kelce this year.

Fabiano: George Pickens Offensive Rookie of the Year (+1000)

George Pickens has the talent to be the surprise top rookie impact maker in the Steelers’ offense.

Ehalt: Chris Olave Offensive Rookie of the Year (+1000)

Chris Olave is going to receive so many looks in this offense, especially if Michael Thomas isn’t healthy.

Childs: Joe Burrow MVP (+1200)

The one with the best tools wins the game. Bet on Joe Burrow.

Wood: Justin Herbert MVP (+1000)

Justin Herbert is already one of the best quarterbacks, so if the Chargers take the leap to contention that many expect he’ll be more than deserving of the award.

Taddeo: Dameon Pierce Offensive Rookie of the Year (+1200)

Four running backs have have won the award in the last year. Time to invest in Dameon Pierce, the rookie with the clearest path to significant work.

Piacenti: Kenny Pickett Offensive Rookie of the Year (+700)

Kenny Pickett has been the second-highest graded rookie by PFF in the preseason. He will get his chance, and let’s face it—a quarterback usually wins this one.

De Lima: T.J. Watt Defensive Player of the Year (+700)

T.J. Watt is far and away the best defensive player in the league right now. With Pittsburgh’s offense looking like a three-and-out machine, Watt is a lock to win Defensive Player of the Year at +700 odds. Put the farm on it. Liquidate your 401K.

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Published Sep 5, 2022

KYLE WOOD

Kyle is based in Washington, D.C. He writes the Winners Club newsletter and is a fantasy and betting writer for SI. His work has appeared in the Tampa Bay Times, Orlando Sentinel, Miami Herald and Gainesville Sun.